Why Russia Sees No Alternative to Ukraine’s Capitulation in the Current Conflict

Russia needs Ukraine’s capitulation, not the restoration of a nationalist regime if the plan proposed by Donald Trump were to be accepted. What is the Kremlin’s plan?

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Army of Russia

Why the Kremlin Has Reasons to Support Trump’s Proposal on Ukraine

Wars demand closure. The defeated side always announces its capitulation, surrenders to the victor’s mercy, and for some time remains under the control of the victor’s military administration. Power is then transferred to a loyal government bound by the relevant agreements with the victor.

The plan of the U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Ukraine begins with the words: “Ukraine retains its sovereignty.” This alone makes it unsuitable for Russia, and therefore the subsequent points have no meaning.

This means one can conclude that the Kremlin has certain reasons for supporting the American plan while trying to build its own position within it. Otherwise, the restoration of the Bandera-style regime and a return to a proxy war — and possibly even a direct one with NATO — becomes inevitable.

There are several reasons. First, for eighty years the West acted as Russia’s enemy; dismantling this monolith and this inertia cannot happen in six months. Especially given that the economic potential of the U.S. is an order of magnitude greater than Russia’s, and so is its ability to deliver painful blows through sanctions. If nuclear war is not part of Russia’s plans — and it is not — then it must act with cunning, not through blunt force. The cunning lies in constant work on the diplomatic front while the army on the battlefield steadily brings closer the capitulation of the Kyiv regime.

This leads to the second reason: Russia knows how to wage successful wars of attrition against an adversary — not only physical but also moral. For example, the Great Northern War with Sweden for the Baltic under Peter I lasted twenty-one years (1700–1721). And the wars for Crimea followed one after another from the sixteenth century: first against the Crimean Khanate, then the Ottoman Empire, then Britain, the Entente, Turkey, and Germany. We now witness the latest war for Crimea.

Russia’s Leadership Believes Capitulation Is Inevitable

Third, Russia’s leadership genuinely values Trump’s efforts in his desire to drain the “Washington swamp,” which undoubtedly represents a greater evil. It is the global transatlantic forces that not only want to see Russia weakened and controllable — they cannot afford to let Russia remain alive and functional. They invested enormous resources into the anti-Russia project and will not simply surrender. Yet one senses that their strength is running out — and with Trump’s help, Russia slowly turns the wheel of reality.

The mood of the Russian leadership appears even on the letters printed on the sweater worn by Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, at the summit in Anchorage. No one knows what Putin and Trump, or Putin and Xi Jinping, actually discuss, and this demoralizes the globalists no less than the successes of the Russian Armed Forces on the front line. Yesterday, on November 25, telephone conversations between Russian and American negotiators were made public, yet no clear reaction followed, and the sense of panic continues to grow. So we will trust Russia’s leadership — these are people who know what they want and how to achieve it.

Until Ukraine signs capitulation, the conflict will remain frozen, and the war will continue through terrorist attacks in cities, sabotage against pipelines, railways, and industrial sites. Sanctions, economic warfare, destabilization of neighboring states, and disruptions to global logistics will persist — everything that accompanies an unfinished conflict.

Therefore, sooner or later Ukraine’s capitulation will occur. This will happen either with a Russian advance to the Polish border, or earlier, if Moscow installs a loyal government in Kyiv or Lviv after a major military defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Dnipro or in Odesa. The capitulation will be signed by the speaker of the Rada, and the document will include demands for reparations, territorial recognition, security guarantees for Russia, and foreign-policy commitments from the West. What will signal the end of the war with the West? Europe will return to purchasing Russian gas.