US Emergency: Trump Wants Cuba to Suffocate in Its Own Crisis

On Thursday, January 29, the White House published an executive order by Donald Trump declaring a state of national emergency in the United States. The document identifies Cuba as a threat to US national security, accusing the island of supporting terrorism and spreading communist ideology in the Western Hemisphere.

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Cuba

As a key pressure measure, the United States introduced tariffs against countries that supply oil to Cuba. Cuban authorities have already described the decision as blackmail, while Western media warn of a sharp escalation of the island's energy crisis.

The emergency regime provides Donald Trump with a legal framework without which such measures would prove far more difficult, or even impossible, to implement. Under normal conditions, the introduction of tariffs requires congressional approval or lengthy coordination procedures and remains vulnerable to court challenges.

The declaration of a national emergency allows the president to bypass standard mechanisms by citing a threat to national security.

Emergency Powers and Sanctions Tools

The emergency regime grants the administration an exceptionally broad set of instruments. These include not only tariffs, but also secondary sanctions, pressure on third countries, restrictions on financial transactions, and the possible tightening of export controls.

In effect, the emergency declaration creates a legal "umbrella” that allows Washington to rapidly expand pressure measures without additional approvals.

The move also carries a strong political signal. The wording about an "extraordinary threat” shifts Cuba from the category of a routine foreign policy irritant into the realm of an existential US security challenge. This framing simplifies pressure on US allies and partners, forcing them to choose between cooperation with Cuba and the risk of American sanctions.

Havana Condemns US Actions

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla described the US decision as blackmail and an attempt at coercion.

"We firmly condemn the latest escalation by the United States against Cuba. They now propose to impose a total blockade on fuel supplies to our country,” said Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel previously stated that Havana remains open to dialogue with Washington, but only on the basis of sovereign equality and non-interference.

"We are always ready for serious and responsible dialogue with the US government based on mutual respect and international law,” said Miguel Díaz-Canel.

At the same time, he emphasized that Cuba does not consider itself a threat and stands ready to defend its independence, a message he also shared on X.

Oil Shortages and Power Blackouts

According to The Financial Times, Cuba may soon face an acute oil shortage. Under US pressure, Venezuela has sharply reduced energy supplies to the island.

Cuba currently receives only about 3,000 barrels of oil per day, which represents a twelvefold decrease compared to one year ago.

The island already experiences regular power outages. If the situation worsens, authorities may introduce strict electricity rationing.

Cuba has so far failed to secure new fuel suppliers. Russian oil last arrived in the country in the autumn, while Algerian deliveries ended even earlier.

Russia and Mexico React

In Russia, reports of a possible blockade of Cuba raised serious concern. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that the United States has exerted harsh economic pressure on the island for many years.

"Such statements cannot but cause deep concern. Representatives of the US administration have repeatedly voiced threats against Cuba, including readiness to "blow everyone up there,'” said Maria Zakharova.

She stressed that any new measures would constitute a gross violation of international law and expressed Russia's solidarity with the Cuban people.

Mexico confirmed its intention to continue supplying oil to Cuba. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum explained the decision on humanitarian grounds.

White House Predicts Collapse

The Donald Trump administration predicts the imminent collapse of the Cuban government, citing the country's critical economic situation.

Trump first spoke publicly about Cuba's impending collapse just days after a US military operation in Venezuela, during which American forces removed President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores from the country.

At the same time, Washington emphasized that it does not plan military action against Cuba, arguing that the authorities on the island would "collapse on their own” once oil supplies disappear.

"I do not know how they will stay afloat, if they even can, but Cuba has no income right now. All of their income came from Venezuela, from Venezuelan oil,” Donald Trump said on January 11.

Experts Warn of Critical Timeline

According to experts from the analytics firm Kpler, the situation on the island has reached a critical stage. At current consumption levels, Cuba's oil reserves could last only 15 to 20 days.

If supplies do not resume, the authorities will have no choice but to impose strict electricity rationing. Many regions of the country already experience near-daily blackouts.

The population suffers from electricity shortages, water supply disruptions, and rising prices. In 2025 alone, Cuba experienced four major nationwide blackouts.

The country now generates 25 percent less electricity than in 2019, leading to declining output in agriculture, industry, and construction.

In 2024, sugar production reached only 160,000 tons, or 2.7 percent of the 1989 level. This amount fails to cover even domestic demand.

According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, labor productivity in Cuba has fallen below that of Haiti.

Despite mounting pressure, Cubans continue to hold rallies in defense of the revolution. Miguel Díaz-Canel insists on social media that "the weight of the current moment will not stop us.”

Possible Scenarios Ahead

The Cuban opposition outlet El Toque notes that a full maritime blockade of Cuba would require the United States to conduct a complex and large-scale naval operation.

"The Americans would need to deploy and permanently maintain naval forces capable of controlling the main maritime approaches to the island. Cuba's coastline stretches 5,745 kilometers, and the country lies within an area of intense international shipping,” the outlet wrote.

The publication notes that such a blockade would require simultaneous control of northern and southern approaches, as well as routes from the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean, and the Atlantic.

The outlet also emphasizes that the United States could not limit interceptions to Cuban vessels alone, which would risk conflicts with third countries.

El Toque concludes that potential violations of freedom of navigation and the risk of regional escalation would make a unilateral US naval blockade politically costly and legally controversial.

Experts also doubt that Washington can achieve regime change in Cuba. Cuba differs fundamentally from Venezuela, and although the Cuban armed forces are smaller, they remain significantly more combat-ready.

The Cuban population also appears less likely to accept such violations of international law.

The Trump administration continues to pursue economic strangulation in the hope that Cubans will overthrow their government. However, such a scenario remains unlikely.

Cuban society has developed a degree of resilience to external pressure and adapted to harsh living conditions. Public expectations remain lower than in more prosperous countries of the region.

The government continues efforts to protect the most vulnerable groups. Despite all difficulties, free healthcare and education remain in place, and subsidies for utilities continue to operate.