Russia expected to double its pipeline natural gas exports

Russia's pipeline natural gas exports could see a significant increase, reaching approximately 240 billion cubic meters per year.

Photo: phmsa.dot.gov by PHMSA, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

Gas pipeline

This means that supply volumes could not only double compared to current levels but also surpass the highest figures recorded in previous years. These conclusions stem from a statement by Pavel Zavalny, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy.

Speaking at the XXII International Forum Gas Russia 2025, Zavalny noted that such export growth would be possible if the current level of demand for Russian gas on international markets is maintained.

According to him, after a decline in production volumes in 2022 due to reduced exports to Europe, Russia has been gradually increasing its gas output. This indicates the implementation of measures to diversify export routes and boost domestic consumption.

To achieve the planned pipeline export volume of 240 billion cubic meters, several major infrastructure projects need to be implemented.

In particular, this includes expanding supplies to China via the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline and from offshore fields near Sakhalin, as well as creating a supply route to Iran through Azerbaijan. Additionally, there are discussions about increasing export volumes to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Prime news agency said.

By the end of 2023, Russian pipeline gas exports had grown by 15.6%, exceeding 119 billion cubic meters, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in January 2025. Thus, the successful implementation of the aforementioned projects would effectively double the current supply volume.

By 2025, when the Power of Siberia pipeline reaches its designed capacity of 38 billion cubic meters, it is expected to contribute an additional increase of approximately seven billion cubic meters. Exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are also anticipated to grow.

Furthermore, within the next decade, the creation of a Far Eastern export route involving Sakhalin’s offshore fields is a possibility. Negotiations are ongoing for the Power of Siberia 2 project, which would transport gas through Kazakhstan, with a potential capacity of up to 45 billion cubic meters per year.

Another promising direction is gas exports to Iran via Azerbaijan. Potential supply volumes along this route could reach up to 55 billion cubic meters annually. Pavel Zavalny emphasized that these projects would create new opportunities for expanding Russia’s gas exports and diversifying supply routes.

Details

Based on data from EIA at the start of 2021, proven gas reserves were dominated by three countries: Iran, Russia, and Qatar. There is some disagreement on which country has the largest proven gas reserves. Sources that consider Russia in possession of the world's largest proven reserves include the US CIA (47,600 cubic kilometers), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (49,000 km³), and OPEC (48,810 km³). However, BP credits Russia with only 32,900 km³, which would place it in second place, slightly behind Iran (33,100 to 33,800 km³, depending on the source). Due to constant announcements of shale gas recoverable reserves, as well as drilling in Central Asia, South America, Africa, and deepwater drilling, estimates are updated frequently. Since 2000, some countries, notably the US and Canada, have seen large increases in proven gas reserves due to development of shale gas, but shale gas deposits in most countries are yet to be added to reserve calculations.