NATO’s Shadow Over the Caspian: The Fall of Iran Could Be Catastrophic for Russia

The failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program has placed the world on the brink of a new conflict. For Russia, such a scenario would be existential.

Photo: fna.ir by Mehdi Bolourian, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Iranian missiles

Iran's Nuclear Program Not Destroyed

The talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva, concluded on February 26-27, ended fruitlessly. They took place against the backdrop of an unprecedented US military buildup in the Middle East and threats of strikes against Iran in the event of diplomatic failure.

The United States insists on the complete dismantling of key Iranian nuclear facilities — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — and the transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles under external control. Washington demands that Iran never be allowed to enrich uranium above the civilian level of 3.67 percent and permanently halt research into new, faster centrifuge models such as the IR-9, which make it possible to accumulate bomb material within days.

Recently, US President Donald Trump stated that Iran's nuclear program had been "wiped off the face of the earth” as a result of airstrikes in June 2025. However, experts express the view that centrifuges buried so deeply underground cannot be destroyed at all unless through a ground operation.

Iran expressed readiness for certain concessions regarding uranium stockpiles, including reducing their level of enrichment, but категорically rejected demands to end enrichment inside the country and to limit its missile program, calling it a matter of national security.

Concessions to the US Bring War Closer

Iran is perhaps the only country in the world that calls things by their proper names. For decades, Tehran has built its state ideology on resistance to the "Great Satan” — the United States — rather than referring to it as a "partner.” Although pro-Western "reformers” are currently in power, they also understand that capitulation to Washington's demands could provoke a split within the elite and deprive the authorities of support from the population, conservative circles, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Such a move would brand the "reformers” as traitors.

It is notable that President Masoud Pezeshkian recently referred to the death of his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, as a murder for the first time, whereas previously it had been presented by authorities as an accident.

Enriched uranium is the only lever of pressure Iran possesses. If this stockpile is transferred to a third country, it would open the way for US pressure on Iran's missile program. Granting concessions to Washington does not work — as, supporters of this view argue, was demonstrated in Iraq and Libya — and instead makes war more likely.

An Independent Iran as a Security Guarantee for Russia

For Russia, the existence of a strong and independent Iran is described as a strategic necessity. Iran is portrayed as a lock on Russia's southern flank. If a pro-American regime were to take power in Tehran or the country were to descend into chaos, Russia would face a vast zone of instability directly along the borders of the Caucasus and Central Asia, as well as the risk of the Caspian Sea turning into a zone of NATO military presence.

Under sanctions, the North-South transport route through Iran to the Indian Ocean has become a "road of life” for Russia. Without an independent and friendly Iran, Russia could find itself in a transport blockade, as Western and maritime routes through the Bosporus remain vulnerable to restrictions.

Iran has become a key partner for Russia in defense technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles and missile programs. The loss of such an ally amid global confrontation with the West would weaken Moscow's military and strategic positions. If Iran were to shift into the Western orbit, its gas and oil resources could be used to drive down global energy prices, dealing a blow to the Russian budget.

Russia, proponents argue, could make Iran's military defeat impossible by transferring advanced S-400 air defense systems, electronic warfare complexes, and supersonic anti-ship missiles such as Zircon or Onyx. It is also suggested that Russia could provide Iran with real-time satellite data on US fleet and aviation movements, while the presence of Russian specialists at key facilities — for example, during indefinite naval exercises — would make any attack крайне risky.

If the Pentagon were to launch a full-scale ground invasion aimed at occupying Iran, for Moscow it would represent an existential challenge comparable to the situation in Ukraine.