Iran and the US: Naval Blockade Scenarios and the Road to Open Conflict

US President Donald Trump has instructed the US Navy and other branches of the American military to prepare for the introduction of a "naval blockade” against Iran by Friday, January 30, according to Fox News. The Trump administration is betting on what it describes as ongoing internal protests in Iran and is calling on Iranian military personnel to "side with the people” in exchange for the lifting of personal sanctions and security guarantees.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate 2nd Class John L. Beeman., https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

USS Harry Truman

How the United States Could Enforce a Naval Blockade of Iran

A naval blockade is a military measure that must be effective in practice, meaning it requires forces capable of physically restricting access to a country's coastline and ports. The United States possesses such capabilities. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has already entered the area of responsibility of US Central Command in the Middle East. The deployed group includes guided-missile destroyers capable of carrying cruise missiles and, most likely, an attack nuclear submarine. Additional air defense systems, including THAAD and Patriot, as well as F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, have also been deployed.

However, a full naval blockade would amount to a declaration of outright war. Technically, the United States could attempt to "close” the Persian Gulf, but this would represent a scenario of a major regional conflict rather than a limited action "prepared by Friday.” A more likely option involves intensified maritime traffic control, which could be politically labeled a blockade but would differ significantly in scale and risk.

Even such a limited measure would still require continuous protection of naval forces against retaliatory strikes and a substantial number of boarding inspections.

Iran's Response: An Eye for an Eye

Tehran has officially described US actions as an act of war and has declared full combat readiness. Possible Iranian responses include:

• the use of drone swarms and coastal missile systems against American naval vessels;
• attacks by pro-Iranian groups, including the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, targeting shipping in the Red Sea and US bases in the region;
• threats to strike oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf states if they support Washington;
• the seizure of American commercial vessels in response to every detained tanker, a tactic Iran has already used in the past and one the United States has limited means to prevent;
• the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an extreme measure that would also damage Iran's own economy.

Does Trump Have Unexpected Moves, Venezuelan-Style?

Donald Trump has described Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as an "easy target” and stated that the United States knows his exact location.

Experts do not rule out an attempt to physically eliminate or capture Iran's top leadership, following a scenario similar to efforts once directed against Nicolás Maduro.

Trump has also hinted at the use of mysterious weapons, possibly impulse-based or cyber systems. Tehran, however, has already taken precautions. The Iranian leader has reportedly moved underground, and security measures have been significantly reinforced.

Another potential option would involve strikes on command centers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to deprive the government of its ability to suppress internal protests and coordinate proxy groups. However, analysts argue that Washington missed the optimal timing for such actions, which would have needed to occur before January 8.

Warning Signs of Escalation

Key indicators that confrontation is sliding toward open conflict include:

• specific detentions and inspections of tankers and commercial vessels;
• a sharp rise in maritime insurance costs accompanied by growing queues of ships waiting near Iranian ports;
• harsher Iranian rhetoric regarding the Strait of Hormuz combined with concrete actions, such as the interception of Western commercial ships.

Further escalation could involve emergency evacuations from US facilities in the region, a dramatic drop in commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the appearance of ultimatums in official rhetoric. Beyond that point, war would become the most likely outcome.