Chinese Military Studies Iran War to Prepare for Taiwan Conflict

Chinese military analysts are carefully examining the tactics and weapons used in the war in the Middle East, drawing lessons that could prove useful in a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons by Author Unknown, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

People's Liberating Army of China

An article published by Guancha.cn, part of the TV BRICS media network, titled "What Bloody Lessons the People's Liberation Army Learned from the War with Iran,” states that the United States and Israel have widely deployed artificial intelligence models during the conflict.

According to the publication, Israel used artificial intelligence to reconstruct the movement patterns of Iran's leadership after hacking the traffic surveillance network in Tehran. This allowed Israel to "decapitate” the Iranian command structure with one or two missile strikes. At the same time, the article argues that the AI system failed to account for the decentralized command structure of Iran's armed forces. According to the authors, this once again demonstrates that the United States lacks sufficiently strong analysts capable of formulating the correct tasks for artificial intelligence systems.

Small Precision Weapons

Chinese experts highlight several effective solutions involving compact precision weapons, which in certain cases prove cheaper and more efficient than other types of strike systems.

One example is the American SDB guided bomb (Small Diameter Bomb), weighing 113 kilograms. According to analysts, the munition proved successful in destroying Iranian Air Force aircraft hidden inside bunkers. Satellite imagery showed that the bomb pierces a precise hole in the center of a concrete shelter and detonates inside, destroying the aircraft.

Russia, the article notes, has developed and deployed a direct conceptual analogue of the SDB — the UMPB D-30SN universal interservice glide munition.

Israeli forces also used "micro-missiles,” including the Spike-SR system, which weighs around ten kilograms together with its launch tube. The missile can disable aircraft by striking their engines without causing significant damage to airfield infrastructure.

Comparable munitions are still under development in the Russian Armed Forces. Under current battlefield conditions, similar functions are widely performed by FPV drones, which are cheaper than guided missiles and can strike targets at comparable distances — up to five to ten kilometers — with high precision.

Attacks on Strategic Radar Systems

Chinese analysts also highlight the tactics employed by Iran's armed forces, which targeted expensive American radar installations. Among them was the AN/FPS-132 radar station located at the Pave Paws air base in Qatar, as well as two primary AN/TPY-2 radar systems of the THAAD missile defense network in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

Disabling such nodes dramatically reduces the time available for detecting and responding to incoming missiles. These systems are also critical for tracking targets and guiding interceptor missiles. Without them, expensive missile defense launchers become significantly less effective.

Low-Cost Air Defense Solutions

Chinese observers pay particular attention to inexpensive weapons capable of intercepting loitering drones. Analysts note the effectiveness of Iran's self-guided anti-aircraft "358” missile.

After launch, the missile does not immediately head toward a target. Instead, it can patrol a designated area for hours, flying in a figure-eight pattern until it detects an objective. The system reportedly shot down several reconnaissance and strike drones, including Hermes-900 unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the Israeli Air Force and MQ-9 Reaper drones used by the United States.

Russia currently has no direct serial equivalent of such a "hunter missile” for air defense.

Portable Drone Interceptors

Chinese specialists also praise a miniature Iranian drone interceptor — a compact form of "pocket air defense” similar to systems already available in Russia.

The article suggests that many American media outlets have recently urged the United States military to acquire comparable systems. Analysts likely refer to the Russian "Yolka” interceptor, a short-range drone interception system with a radius of up to three kilometers.

The device is launched directly by a soldier once a target is detected. It operates according to a "fire-and-forget” principle: the operator points the launcher toward the target, after which the interceptor drone automatically locks on and carries out the interception.

Lessons for Taiwan

Chinese military planners actively study contemporary conflicts in order to apply these lessons in a potential campaign aimed at reunification with Taiwan — a scenario some Chinese strategists believe could be achieved within "three days.”

In practice, however, such rapid campaigns rarely succeed. Yet Taiwan's island geography, its distance from the United States, and the redeployment of American forces to the Middle East — which reduces the US military presence in the Pacific theater — may lead Beijing to believe that favorable conditions could emerge in the near future.