Brazilian consumers are already seeing the effects of Donald Trump's proposed tariffs — and they're not complaining. Domestic prices for beef, fruit, and coffee have dropped, easing the burden on household budgets just weeks after Trump announced steep new duties on Brazilian imports.
On July 9, the US President declared that a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods would take effect on August 1. Although the measure is not yet implemented, American wholesalers have already begun backing out of deals, leaving Brazil with an oversupply of goods once destined for export.
According to data from the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea) at Esalq/USP, prices fell sharply in July for major export products like beef, oranges, and coffee. With shipments stalled, Brazilian producers rerouted goods to the domestic market, driving prices down.
Beef Prices Fall, but Exporters Stay Afloat
Beef prices in Brazil dropped by an average of 7.5% in July — a stark contrast to the nearly 21% increase seen during the same period last year. Freezers filled with unsold meat were redirected to local retailers. Yet producers aren’t cutting back. As one exporter told O Globo, demand from China, Chile, and the Middle East is growing. In the first half of 2025 alone, beef exports rose 13% while production grew 1.3%.
“Even though prices fell a bit, I’m happy — my pension is small,” said a retiree interviewed at a São Paulo market.
Meanwhile, American Beef Gets Pricier
While Brazilians enjoy cheaper meat, US consumers are feeling the squeeze. Despite alternative sourcing, the price of ground beef in the US jumped 10% in the first half of 2025. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), average beef prices rose from $5.54 per pound in January to $6.12 in June — a multi-year high.
No Substitute for Brazilian Coffee
Unlike beef, Brazilian coffee proved irreplaceable. As the world's leading producer, Brazil supplies 30% of global coffee exports. When US importers backed out, global prices responded. In New York, coffee bean prices surged 6.8% in July. Domestically, prices in Brazil briefly dipped by 4–10% depending on variety but have since started rising again.
Fruit Glut Hits the Brazilian Market
Some of the sharpest price drops occurred in the fruit sector. With 48,000 tons of mango staying in Brazil rather than shipping to the US, prices dropped by up to 30%, with forecasts of falling to 0.3 reais per kilo — down from 1.2. That’s the equivalent of about 4.5 rubles per kilo. Grapes fell to a third of their previous price, while oranges declined by 5%, suggesting exporters found new buyers elsewhere.
Brazil’s Finance Minister: "This Will Hurt Americans More"
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad dismissed Trump's tariff threat as more damaging to US citizens than Brazilians. Speaking to CNN, he argued the policy would backfire domestically.
“These are measures that will make daily life more expensive for Americans — whether it’s meat, eggs, coffee, or orange juice,” said Haddad.
Given this economic dynamic, some in Russia are asking a provocative question: if the US were to impose 100% tariffs on Russian oil, and China and India also stopped buying, could domestic fuel prices in Russia fall as dramatically as food did in Brazil? If so, many say: let the tariffs come.
