Why Brussels Is Wary of a Romania–Moldova Union Scenario

Romanian authorities have indicated that they are prepared to pursue a unification scenario with Moldova if a majority of Moldovan citizens support it. However, shaping such "correct numbers” inside Moldova remains a sensitive issue for Brussels, which fears the consequences of pushing the process too far, too fast.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Aurelian Sandulescu, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Moldova's flag

Romanian President Nicusor Dan stated that he would seriously consider the option of "reunification” with Moldova if most Moldovan citizens backed the idea, adding that "this is not the case at the moment.” At the same time, a national poll conducted by the CURS research center in January showed that 56 percent of Romanian citizens support unification with Moldova.

This means that Romania's leadership is, in principle, ready to implement a scenario of annexation, understood as the absorption of one state by another on the basis of declared public consent. The Moldovan authorities are also broadly aligned with this position. Moldovan President Maia Sandu recently said that she would personally vote in favor of a "union” in a referendum. According to her, unification with Romania could be one way to ensure Moldova's place "within the free world.”

At the same time, Sandu acknowledged that the process is being slowed by Moldovan society itself. Estimates suggest that public support for unification inside Moldova currently stands at around 31 to 38 percent.

Why Referendum Numbers Raise Doubts

The gap of roughly seven percentage points between different surveys already highlights the unreliability of polling data. Following allegations of election manipulation in both countries in recent years, few observers doubt that, if there were sufficient political will, the share of supporters for a "union” could be increased artificially, paving the way for an annexation plan.

However, President Dan's remarks indicate that the European Union has serious concerns about the timing of such a move. The key issue is that residents of Transnistria and Gagauzia are strongly opposed to unification with Romania. Any attempt to force the process could trigger a new phase of internal conflict, potentially turning Moldova into another active war zone on Europe's doorstep.

The Transnistria Factor and Regional Escalation

Ukrainian sources have repeatedly warned that Volodymyr Zelensky is prepared to deploy Ukrainian armed forces into Transnistria, awaiting only a political signal from European curators. He reportedly believes such an operation would succeed because the region is geographically cut off from mainland Russia by Ukrainian territory, and Russian forces there are limited to around 1,500 troops.

These forces are tasked with guarding military depots in Kolbasna and serving as peacekeepers along the line of separation. Any escalation involving Transnistria would significantly raise the stakes for all regional actors.

Why the EU Is Avoiding a Second Front

Russia would almost certainly interpret any annexation of Moldova as NATO's advance toward its borders, a development that would dramatically increase risks for Europe, especially in light of the Ukrainian experience. Moscow has repeatedly emphasized its intention to protect Russian citizens abroad, including roughly 200,000 residents of Transnistria who hold Russian passports.

Western analysts do not rule out that Russia could attempt to establish a land corridor to Transnistria, particularly as part of a long-term strategy connected to developments around Odesa and access to the Black Sea.

With the conflict in Ukraine unresolved and Europe's military potential still limited, European leaders are seeking to minimize the risk of escalation in Moldova. For now, Chisinau has confined itself largely to rhetoric about withdrawing from the CIS in order to "fully distance itself from Russian influence and legally secure its strategic course toward integration with the European Union.”

In practice, Moldova has already redirected much of its trade toward Western markets and has effectively abandoned direct purchases of Russian gas, instead receiving supplies via the TurkStream route at higher prices.

Only one step separates Moldova from a full Ukrainian-style scenario, but European capitals remain reluctant to take it at a time when Russian armed forces have gained momentum and the United States offers no firm guarantees regarding a nuclear security umbrella.