Israel Rates Iran Strike Probability at 40–55 Percent as US Tankers and AWACS Deploy

In a significant buildup, multiple US military aircraft-including refueling, transport, and AWACS planes-have arrived in Europe and are now heading toward the Middle East.

Aircraft Deployed

• 9 KC-135R aerial refueling tankers
• 3 military transport aircraft (C-130J and C-17)
• 2 Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS planes

Most tankers are expected to make an intermediate stop on Crete before accompanying fighter jets to the Middle East.

High Air Traffic and Rising Threat

Recent US air traffic toward the Middle East over the past 48 hours is abnormally high, signaling the seriousness of the situation. Updated Israeli assessments place the probability of a strike against Iran between February 18-24 at medium-high (approximately 40-55%), up from a previous estimate of 20-35%.

If Iran fails to make significant concessions regarding ballistic missiles, proxies, or nuclear enrichment, and progress proves only superficial, former President Donald Trump could decide to act within days, mirroring preparations in 2025.

Potential Conflict Outlook

According to Axios, the Trump administration is preparing for a war with Iran that could last several weeks. Israeli sources report that their government is preparing for the possibility of conflict within days. While US sources anticipate that a decisive battle may take weeks, patience in the White House is reportedly running low.