Trump & Tehran — Anatomy of a Walk-Back

Today we shall discuss how geo-political winds shift with rapidity.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Sonia Sevilla, https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

Flag of Iran

In this instance, reviewing how within a month President Trump assumed multiple Policy Positions regarding Iran, various factors that came into play, as well as the effect of unpredictable ancillary events.

All to say — the best you are EVER going to do with prediction models is 85% and even that is hazy.

Last Month — December 28, 2025 to January 10, 2026

While Iranian Protests began in late December last year, Donald hadn't weighed in until early January when he claimed the U. S. was "locked and loaded and ready to go”…then…not much else.

This Week — January 11, 2026 to January 17, 2026

Suddenly "ready” seemed impending when on January 11, 2026, numerous Tariffs were announced for anybody who did business with Iran…even if that nation was already pretty well completely isolated.

Anyway, on January 13, Iranian Protestors were encouraged by our President to "take over your institutions” as "help is on the way”…and conclaves with Iranian Leadership abruptly cancelled.

That afternoon, again January 13, Trump indicated "very strong action” forthcoming if Protestors were executed as Tehran might "expect some things”…with rumors in D. C. military plans had been drawn.

Except!…Say What Now?…

Strikingly, on January 14, 2026, Trump suddenly began making comments such as "the killing has stopped”… to which some Iranians then getting shot replied, "Say what, now?”.

Thus, clearly a move by the President to de-escalate rhetoric. Except, as usual, done ineptly

Don Cheeto might have stated that protests seemed to be weakening…or Tehran had begun showing restraint…or there was possibility of constructive dialogue for internal parties…all generally accurate.

American Perspective and Iranian Acquiescence

To be fair, very few in America sought any increased entanglements with Iran, but credibility is also important — changing outlook based on new data is perfectly acceptable, falsifying data is disingenuous.

Be that as it may, Tehran appeared to consent in revising their own prior announcements. Young Protestor Erfan Soltani had been previously sentenced to death…and then on January 14, 2026, we got from the Iranians, ”Er, actually, we're cool…and for your info he was NEVER under death sentence”.

Absolutely the correct decision, done clumsily; consider that an opportunity missed, Mon Mullahs.

Messaging — Getting It Straight

Reading between the lines is de rigueur in diplomacy, so let's unravel how military action came undone.

Iran: Pro-American Intervention Panic

One of the more desperate moves came early January 11 Week as multiple "sources” tried to push a claim 12,000…or even as many as 24,000…had been slaughtered by Iranian Security absent evidence.

NOTE: You can ALWAYS tell amateurs because they break out the "Symmetry” figures: "Such and such "Baddies' murdered XX amount…or MAYBE even as many as XX times TWO amount!”…listen closely, you can hear the "OMG!”.

It was the moment Yours Truly suspected the "uprising” meme likely failed: fatalities inflated, advocates used the X and double X method which showed panic, decisive force eroded waning public support.

Iran: Anti-American Intervention Complications

From the other side of the issue, a curious lack of urgency to action.

Trump never met supposed "Leader” of the Opposition, Reza Pahlavi, a divisive idol among Iranians. Granted, this son of a former Shah is a totem of rebellion…but there is dubious actual support for him outside of his handlers in Tel Aviv and the Public Relations firms paid to endlessly promote his acclaim.

As days progressed, Donald additionally began a Walk-Back.

He commenced bellicose then hedged. Initially an incursion was implied, then curtailed into an imputed missile strike, eventually to be indicative of perhaps an infrastructure disruption at most.

Also, while Don was "Thundercats Go!” a week and a half past, he soon changed it to "if Iranians begin shooting people”…altered to "if they hang people”…only later "if they massively kill people”…

The Unpredictables That Alter History

So what changed? Here is the "After Non-Action Report” on what may have un-moved the dial…potentially important events, largely unpredictable, yet consequential the course of behavior.

Minnesota Immigration Mayhem

On January 7, 2026, in the American State Minnesota was the demise of Protestor Renee Goode, who had been harassing Immigration Officers; whether appropriate or excessive is not our present concern.

Of note is the incident exacerbated already-tense community relations. The Mayor of Minneapolis made vulgar statements. The Governor of Minnesota similarly inflamed the situation, then gave a State address which further increased vitriol. That evening another Protestor was shot but survived.

On January 15, 2026, President Trump announced he was considering invoking the "Insurrection Act” which could engage the American Military in order to quell the unrest.

What does this have to do with Iran? Getting involved with violent Protests in another country is not politically tenable when dealing with violent Protests in your own at the same time; so it is germane.

American Millionaires Are Suffering

Given we all know every American is a Millionaire (usually on his way to becoming a Billionaire), one would think everybody might be doing okay. Except, bizarrely, that seems not to be the case for many.

It was recently reported over 90% of Americans this year reduced their standard of living in some way, given the relentlessly High Inflation which our Federal Government assures us does not exist.

Furthermore, American Farmers, still dealing with negative implications of Trump Tariffs supposed to "save” the economy, are in dire straits; and Farm Bankruptcies up over 35% annually.

Related, several Farm Losses are due to…Health Care! When Trump stole $1 Trillion of Health Care Dollars to send to Billionaire Donors it caused Reductions In Staff or Facility Closures for rural Hospitals.

As often mentioned here, Top 10 States experiencing Health Care Premium Increase? All Red. All Republican. All suggesting Mid-Term Losses Incoming.

Consequently, Domestic economic issues may have coalesced to preclude Foreign military intervention.

Totally Unrelated Nationwide Phone Outages

On January 14, 2026, system failure of service providers affected one-third or more of the United States; inclusive Verizon, ATT, T-Mobile, U. S. Cellular and Xfinity — each vital for telephone as well as internet.

Any Iranian connection? No one is talking but there are murmurs. Importantly, only AFTER this disruption was Trump mumbling about Iranian reduction in violence. Maybe coincidence, maybe not.

Naturally, the cause was blamed on software, but anecdotal evidence suggests a message was sent.

Opposition Tosses In The Towel

If anyone needed (even) more telegraphing Dear Old Donnie was over Iran, on January 15, 2026, the Peshmerga (that's Kurd) Leader hiding in Iraq gave an interview stating "now is not the time”.

A minor fact but suggesting the moment had already passed for substantive movement on this issue.

(Assuming that anybody really wanted the status quo to realign.)

Exclusive! Russia Brokers Surprise Deal!

Trust, Your Humble Correspondent fully gets that YOU recently learned this "breaking news” about The Kremlin acting as Mediator between Israel and Iran to assure neither would conduct a "first strike” against the other…and it is an estimable achievement, to be sure…BUT. IT. AIN'T. NEWS.

This was first reported LAST YEAR. Specifically, on December 29, 2025, by Amwaj Media (a UK based outlet concerning Middle Eastern events) which ran a headline about the development.

What does it convey to us this is "BREAKING!” in Western Media only this week, particularly by the CIA-Affiliated newspaper The Washington Post?

Could be, the report was being widely held in reserve to distract, so if someone (like a President) needed a Walk-Back Rationale at some point, this could be trotted out as "BREAKING!” to give him some cover.

What To Anticipate Next Week…

As we have seen, nobody can tell with accuracy. Is it POSSIBLE Trump is doing an epic "fake out” before a take out of Iranian sites? Yes. Is it PLAUSIBLE this is the intention? No.

Even should airstrikes occur, they will probably be more along the lines of every recent Middle Eastern action…where one side makes explicitly clear What, When and How they will "attack” such and such a Where…afterward making copious statements they consider the matter closed…

(In other words, the dual belligerents pull their punches to "look tough” for the local yokels but haven't practically intended to do significant damage abroad…then everything resets to "mean insults”.)

For now? Iran seems to be over, while Minneapolis (or a similar venue) seems to be heating up.

Only Don't Cry About It, Plebians!

There remain millions — no joke, documents in the millions — unreleased on the Epstein matter.

Inflation threatens to become a major issue — the more our Federal Government outright lies about the severity of the crisis the more that matter could blow Society apart.

Health Care only needs a dramatic incident — incidentally, this afternoon the Senate deal "fell apart”.

Lastly remain American operations transpiring with Venezuela (another tanker seized yesterday)…Greenland (a failed summit, E. U. troops arrived, American military deployed)…and Ukraine (which nobody ever seems to talk about here these days).

No doubt, we'll have plenty more tears to weep "afore the Current Year is over.

Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America