Russia may benefit from Israel-Iran conflict, but not war

The conflict between Iran and Israel did not reach a heated stage this timeб but the parties tested their level of readiness for full-fledged war. Russia could benefit from the conflict in the Middle East, but not in the long term.

Photo: commons.wikimedia by Соня Севилья, CC BY-SA 3.0

The market reacted weakly to Iran's attack on Israel on Sunday, April 14. Gold and oil prices showed almost no reaction. The price of gold rose by 0.8 percent to $2,379 per troy ounce, according to trading data on Monday, April 15. At the same time, Brent is trading steadily at $90.4 per barrel, WTI — at $85.6.

The conflict appears to have been frozen for a short time unless Israel responds to Iran within a week. The situation is expected to aggravate, but not now — the parties have tested their combat readiness, but preferred not to go full throttle yet.

What Iran learned

• An important psychological milestone has been passed, and direct attacks on the territory of Israel are no longer taboo.
• There are patriots within Iran whose appetite for revenge have been satisfied.
• The coordination of the Iranian military structures that carried out the attack has been put to the test. The military obtained valuable information by observing the work of Israeli and American air defences and air forces. Iran has a huge and, importantly, its own arsenal of missiles and drones. Iran has long been under sanctions and the country has learned how to live under them.
• Iran can already make plans for a "hot” war, since Iran has access to the borders of Israel through its proxies in Iraq and Syria. After all, it is the soldier who steps on enemy soil who decides the outcome of the war. Iran is a 90-million-strong nation, and its army will be numerically superior to any enemy allied armies.
• Iran could see that Russia would support it at the UN Security Council, which means there will be no international sanctions.

What Israel learned

• Arab countries did not even move a finger, whereas Jordan became an ally of Israel. The thesis about Israel's hostile Arab encirclement has exhausted itself.
• Western countries sent in their air forces and fulfilled allied obligations. The US Air Force destroyed more than 80 UAVs and intercepted at least six ballistic missiles launched towards Israel from Iran and Yemen on April 13, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said.
• Israel's air defences are in excellent condition. Yet, Iran did not carry out strikes from Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, or from a distance closer to the Israeli borders. When Tehran has its own nuclear bomb, all of Israel's allies will no longer be so brave. Israel is strong as long as the US is strong, but the situation may change after the elections in November.
• Israel's expenses turned out to be much larger than those of Iran. Tehran launched more than 170 UAVs, about 120 ballistic and about 30 cruise missiles, which were intercepted by Arrow and Patriot systems. IDF reserve general Ram Aminah said that Israel spent about $1-1.3 billion to repel Iran's attack. According to him, Iran's attack costs are ten times less.

Both Iran and Israel are important to Russia

The conflict in the Middle East is situationally beneficial to Russia, as it reduces Western aid to Ukraine and causes oil prices to climb.

Yet, a possible hot war between Israel and Iran will destroy them both, even though one of them is an ally of the Russian Federation, and the other fully supports Russia from the point of view of the results of World War II. Israel is the only country in the West that does not allow anything that could revise its results.