El Mencho’s Killing: US–Mexico Operation and the Risk of Cartel Realignment

The elimination of the head of the Jalisco Cartel during a joint operation by the United States and Mexico places the country on the brink of a vast redivision of spheres of influence and even the risk of civil conflict.

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Mexico

The Jalisco Cartel as a State Within a State

The killed leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, headed what many observers describe as a "state within a state.” The cartel is said to wield power at the municipal level in nearly all states bordering the United States, relying on judges, police officers, officials, prosecutors, business figures, and many others allegedly bought or influenced to support and shield its activities.

Control over this "state,” according to such characterizations, is maintained by its own well-armed forces, reportedly equipped with rocket systems, armored vehicles, and drones.

In terms of organizational structure, the Jalisco group is often described as surpassing Brazilian, Colombian, and similar criminal organizations. Its revenues allegedly come not only from drug trafficking but also from fuel theft, extortion, human trafficking, and migrant smuggling into the United States. Estimates of the cartel's budget range from 8 to 20 billion dollars annually, with funds said to be laundered through cryptocurrency markets.

The cartel is also widely believed to have connections at the highest levels of Mexican power, with the relationship sometimes portrayed as operating under the principle: "you do not touch us, and we do not touch you.”

Mexico Has Lost Every War on Drugs

The Mexican government has repeatedly attempted to dismantle parallel structures of power, yet operations, critics argue, rarely targeted the deeper intertwining of the drug trade with political actors. In 2006, President Felipe Calderón declared a war on drugs, placing particular emphasis on eliminating cartel leaders.

However, when one cartel boss was killed, the organization typically did not disappear. Instead, it fractured into several smaller and often more aggressive groups. These factions began fighting among themselves for control, while simultaneously increasing purchases of heavy weaponry and forming their own special units to counter the army.

Groups such as Los Zetas, composed partly of former military personnel, emerged during this period. Whereas cartels once primarily focused on transporting narcotics into the United States, after Calderón's campaign many shifted toward tactics of terror against local populations, including kidnappings, extortion, and the imposition of protection schemes on businesses.

Pressure From Washington

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had previously stated that she would not combat drug trafficking primarily through force, echoing the slogan "hugs, not bullets.” Yet threats from the United States to designate cartels as terrorist organizations, impose tariffs, and close the border unless fentanyl flows were curbed appear to have influenced the situation.

On February 23, a joint operation reportedly resulted in the elimination of El Mencho. Observers note that a new leader of the Jalisco cartel has already been chosen.

Under the administration of Donald Trump, Washington may attempt to use Mexico's inability to halt drug trafficking as justification for more direct intervention. Trump has repeatedly spoken of the possibility of missile strikes against cartel laboratories or the deployment of special forces on Mexican territory.

Such measures, critics argue, would amount largely to political theater, since strikes on Mexico would not resolve the problem of drug addiction inside the United States. As long as demand and enormous profits persist, destroyed facilities would likely be replaced, potentially even outside Mexico.

The Fentanyl Problem Inside the United States

Commentators frequently point out that segments of the American pharmaceutical industry played a role in the spread of opioid dependence. Potent opioids were widely prescribed for relatively common conditions, contributing to large-scale addiction.

When authorities later tightened prescription regulations, many individuals already suffering from severe dependence faced withdrawal and shortages of legal medications, further complicating the crisis.

Risks for Mexico and the Region

Mexico's leadership now confronts difficult choices, balancing the risks of destabilization from confrontation with cartels against potential economic or political measures from Washington.

Cartels do not necessarily seek to replace the country's political leadership, yet they possess the capacity to undermine governance, potentially rendering central authority largely nominal. Any serious deterioration in Mexico's internal stability would have profound consequences for the entire region.

A large-scale conflict scenario in Mexico could severely affect border security, migration, and economic relations, with possible reverberations extending into the United States itself.