Syrian Kurds Capitulate as U.S.-Brokered Deal Reshapes the North

Syrian Kurdish forces have effectively capitulated after militants loyal to Syria's current leader Ahmed al-Sharaa achieved rapid gains in Kurdish-held areas known as Rojava. Over a single weekend, they seized the entire western and southern bank of the Euphrates and parts of its eastern bank in Raqqa province without resistance, cutting Kurdish control roughly in half.

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Kurdish fighters on the front lines in Raqqa

Collapse of Kurdish Structures in Rojava

Reports from regional sources indicate that the Syrian Democratic Forces were dissolved, while elements of the military leadership, including airborne units and Kurdish partners from Iraqi Peshmerga, relocated to undisclosed locations.

Sipan Hamo, commander of the People's Protection Units, stated that Rojava does not seek secession and that its future lies within Syria. He appealed for assistance from the United States and Israel amid the absence of support from Iran or Russia. At the same time, mutual accusations emerged over killings of civilians in Raqqa and the execution of detainees at the Al-Tabqa prison.

Terms of the Deal and the Role of the United States and Turkey

Kurdish forces previously served as Washington's primary proxy during the campaign against the Islamic State* and as a means to constrain Russia. With Moscow's influence diminished, the United States accepted Ankara's demands, recognizing Damascus's control over the entire country and lifting sanctions.

Al-Sharaa announced the termination of the project for a free Syrian Kurdistan. Under a U. S.-mediated ceasefire agreement, the following steps will take place:

• Full integration of all Kurdish civil institutions and armed units into the Syrian state on an individual basis
• Transfer of control over all oil fields to the Syrian government
• Removal of Kurdistan Workers' Party elements from Syrian territory, underscoring Turkey's direct involvement

Damascus reportedly offered Mazloum Abdi, leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the post of governor of Hasakah, one of the provinces brought under government control.

What Turkey's Ascendancy Means for Russia

The defeat of Kurdish forces in northern Syria consolidates the dominance of pro-Turkish actors across the region. For Russia, this brings several consequences. Moscow loses key leverage, as the Kurds had long allowed it to balance between Damascus and Ankara. Russia also forfeits its role as a guarantor of a political settlement based on federalization.

Turkey's territorial expansion displaces remaining Russian positions in Rojava, including the Qamishli airfield, the strategically vital Tishrin hydroelectric dam on the Euphrates, and patrol deployments in Manbij and Kobani.

The dismantling of Kurdish governance structures may further destabilize the region by freeing radical detainees from prisons, creating new security risks that could reverberate beyond Syria and affect Russia's southern approaches.

*terrorist organization, banned in Russia