Russia to save its neighbors from export of revolutions

Neither those who place orders for "color revolutions" nor those involved in  implementation give any thought to possible consequences

India, Pakistan, Iran, and Mongolia requested to partake as observers in the Astana summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's permanent member states of i.e. Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Their request is quite  understood following a series of "color revolutions" in the neighboring countries and the threat of unrest looming over some of those countries.

All the participants of the summit pay great attention to Russia and China, the only forces capable of opposing the "export of revolutions by request" and those who placed orders alike. The key issue equally important to all the participants of the Astana meeting has to do with ways for strengthening out the regional states' integration system which would enable to ensure general security and general stability.

"Please pay attention to the degree of persistence NATO shows these days while advancing farther on the Transcaucasia, watch them trying hard to reach for Central Asia and strengthen their presence in the region," said Uzbek President Islam Karimov prior to summit, reports Utro.ru. According to him, the above trends can clarify many things and help explain why "they are so keen to exert influence on the developments in our region by taking any advantage of the tragedy that took place in Andijan." 

The members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) share the opinion about the so-called "color revolutions." They believe that all of them are made "by request" as part of a dirty geopolitical scheme.

The SCO members are well-aware of those politicians who believe that all is fair in geopolitics. "This time around the scriptwriters and directors behind the whole thing used those religious, extreme and radical forces previously labeled 'terrorists and extremists' by the same scriptwriters and directors, back then they were successfully fighting those terrorists in Afghanistan," said Uzbek President Karimov.

Neither those who place orders for such "revolutions" nor those involved in  implementation give any thought to possible consequences. "If we take a closer look at those 'color revolutions,' we will mostly see the new authorities trying to pull off a redistribution of assets to their advantage," said Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Every member state taking part in the summit should make its own contribution to the fight against that evil for no one in the SCO is interested in political destabilization. Russian military experts outline a wide range of problems and possible countermeasures including steps to be taken in military, political, economic, and cultural cooperation.

A. Sharavin, director of the Institute of Military and Political Analysis, lays special emphasis on the importance of analysis of a state of internal affairs for making an accurate prediction of another "export revolution" in the works. "We should not underestimate the foreign influence yet the main reason lies within those states," said Mr. Sharavin. He cited a formula by the late Azeri leader Gheidar Aliev. According to Mr. Aliev, people take to the streets only when they can no longer tolerate hunger and misery coupled with indifference and a lack of will on the part of authorities, neither money nor the opposition can drive people to public protests. Mr. Sharavin believes that a very alarming situation is taking shape in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. A long-term analysis indicates that turmoil is very likely to sweep across Turkmenistan once Turkmenbashi (Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov) steps down.

"Should we fail to analyze a situation today, we will have to analyze the consequences and aftermath of tomorrow's tragedies," added Mr. Sharavin. He believes that a potential increase in the Russian military presence in the region may be required. Russia will probably have to put up with a similar increase in the U.S. and NATO military presence in the same region.

Building better relations not only between the states but between the peoples who live in those states is a main cure for the disease, according to Mr. Sharavin. "We should not give our reckless support to leaders only lest people associate us with notorious regimes and politicians whose last names sound a bit weird," said Mr. Sharavin. He is confident that Russia "should maintain the friendship between the peoples who lived together for hundreds of years, and we should keep it intact regardless of relations between their presidents." Mr. Sharavin suggests that nongovernmental organizations along with private and state-run think tanks should be set up in order to fill the gap caused by the lack of the above.

Russian political technologist Marat Gelman considers the situation in the region by analyzing options available for the countries at the moment. As regards the countries of the region, especially the countries of the former Soviet Union, Mr. Gelman points to three possible paths the countries may follow in building a strategic partnership i.e. China, Russia, and America. "The Russian path is the most understandable one, it is customary, and it is the most attractive one of all three because it is the most friendly," said Mr. Gelman. "Numerous ties on the personal and political level still exist in Russia, and the attitude to residents of those countries almost equals the attitude to our compatriots so we should take advantage of these factors," said Mr. Gelman.