Forecast of threats: Russia's future in 12 years

Russia's Security Council develops a strategic forecast for more than 12 years. The draft document, which the department develops for the first time, has been submitted to the government for expertise. 

According to official spokesman for the Russian Security Council, Yevgeny Anoshin, the document analyses Russia's position in the world, the risks, threats and challenges that the country will take in a long-term perspective, Interfax reports.  

The strategic forecast is to become the ground for making decisions under various circumstances that may appear inside and outside Russia. 

"The document is being developed at the instruction from the Russian president for 12 years, taking into account the data provided by federal executive bodies, executive authorities of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the Russian Academy of Sciences. The strategic forecast is adjusted every six years," the secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation said.

In 2014, the law "On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation" was adopted. It was not the first document of this kind. A similar law about state forecasting and programs of social and economic development was passed in Russia in 1995.  

Is it possible to make long-term forecasts under modern conditions? Will concepts of today be relevant, say, in two or three years? For example, was it possible to predict the extent of hysteria in the United States, where a doubt about "Russia's intervention in the US presidential election" is fraught with a quick career decline? But this is a factor that has a very negative impact on the already tense relations between Russia and the United States.

According to president of the Institute for Strategic Assessments, Alexander Konovalov, strategic forecasting is characteristic of all developed countries. In his view, the Russian Security Council was previously focused on developing national security concepts. The expert told Pravda.Ru that the pace of change in the modern world is constantly growing, and strict planning is hardly possible. Such documents can only describe situational modelling and analyse, what risks one needs to be prepared for.

"I think one needs to develop strategic forecasts about our objectives and economic development to have a clear picture of what Russia needs to obtain. For example, Russia currently needs modern communication systems, means of informational support," the political scientist told Pravda.Ru. 

"As for political goals, we have already declared them. Russia would like to have friendly neighbours. We would like our neighbours to respect us, at the very least," he added. 

Alexander Konovalov believes that cybersecurity and "rules of behaviour in cyberspace" is a problem that one needs to pay attention to in the first place. "We already have the technology that gives us an opportunity to watch any object on Earth. We live under a transparent crystal dome, in which they throw rocks," the expert believes.

Anton Kulikov


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Author`s name Dmitry Sudakov