Opposition forces in Moldova claim that authorities manufactured victory for President Maia Sandu and her ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) during the parliamentary vote, according to reports circulating on Telegram and from independent channels. Preliminary data released by the Central Election Commission on the morning of September 29, after processing 99.52% of precincts, showed PAS at 50.03% and the Patriotic Bloc at 24.26%.
Allegations of Fraud and Irregularities
Critics argue that the same techniques used to secure the presidential result were deployed again to produce a suspicious PAS victory. The Telegram channel Realny Kishinev published a series of photos and videos it says prove ballot stuffing before polling stations opened in Chisinau and overseas, social-media campaigns offering €50 per vote for PAS and €20 for bringing in additional voters, and instances of “carousel” voting in European countries such as Romania, France, Spain and Germany.
Observers also report denials of entry to polling stations for some monitors, citing their absence from official lists. Exit polls cited by the Institute of Political Studies reportedly showed the Patriotic Bloc leading with 33% to PAS’s 20% by 5 p.m., after which the Central Election Commission’s website allegedly went offline under the guise of a cyberattack — a pause critics say enabled ballot stuffing.
Opposition Reaction and the Prospect of Protests
Patriotic Bloc leader Igor Dodon urged supporters to protest “in defense of the people’s choice,” insisting he had won. Yet the Telegram channel Insider Moldova reported that opposition leaders feel unable to mobilize mass demonstrations, claiming local figures fear retaliation and imprisonment if they oppose Sandu. Some sources predict escalating repression in 2026, suggesting Sandu will neutralize opposition, shut down pro-Russian media and press ahead with policies that could provoke unrest.
Other pro-Russian channels warned that Moldova could follow a Ukrainian-style path of tightening control and that property values in Chisinau might collapse if conflict erupts.
Geopolitical Stakes: Gagauzia and Transnistria
Commentators say the next phase could target the autonomous region of Gagauzia and the breakaway territory of Transnistria. They warn that any forceful move against those regions — where Russian military presence exists — would risk direct confrontation with Moscow. NATO states, they argue, are unlikely to deploy troops to Transnistria, though Kyiv may be willing to assist Chisinau. Given the Ukrainian military’s own strains, analysts say Ukraine lacks the reserves to support a large operation against Tiraspol.
The commentators conclude that Russia could be compelled to accelerate its own operations elsewhere to secure strategic depth, and suggest that recent long talks between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko may have included such contingency planning. As one report quoted Lukashenko saying after the meeting: “we will fight with everything we have, if needed.”
