Putin knows motives behind Ukraine's attack on Ivan Khurs spy ship

It is believed that the Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship was attacked in the Black Sea from the "grain deal" corridor, as was the case of the explosion of the Crimean Bridge and drone strikes on Sevastopol. Therefore, the grain deal should be lifted as soon as possible. Supposedly, this is what the masterminds of the attack on the Russian warship were counting on.

Photo: kchf.ru

Russian spy ship attacked off Turkish coast

On the morning of May 24, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. Ukraine used unmanned marine vehicles, but the attack failed, the Russian Defence Ministry reported.

It was said that the ship was carrying out works to ensure the safety of the Turkish Stream and the Blue Stream gas pipelines that run 140 kilometres northeast of the Bosphorus in Turkey's economic zone.

According to the Russian Defence Ministry, the drones were destroyed with the help of onboard weapons of the ship. She returned to the base in Sevastopol on May 26 without visible damage.

Attack in the context of second round of presidential election in Turkey

The choice of the place of the attack was not incidental. Undoubtedly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were guided by instructions from Western intelligence.

Turkey is holding the second round of the presidential election on May 28. The sitting President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to win.

His rival, pro-Western protégé Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, recently said that he would impose sanctions on Russia if he took office as president. His election campaign is built on opposition to the policy of Erdogan, who "crawled to Putin on his knees."

Erdogan and his supporters say that agreements with Russia (military, nuclear, tourism, grain agreements) are beneficial for the Turkish economy as they help contain Kurdish extremists in Syria and ensure Turkey's sovereignty.

If Erdogan wins the election, the consequences are clear — Turkey will move away from the West and turn "to the east."

Grain deal to blame?

In Russia, voices were heard saying that the Ivan Khurs was attacked from the grain deal corridor — as in the case of the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge and repeated drone strikes on Sevastopol. Therefore, Russia should urgently cancel the deal. This is what the masterminds of the attack on the Russian warship were counting on.

The grain deal is very beneficial for Turkey: Turkey resells both the grain and grain products, such as pasta. Ankara thus gets foreign currency earnings that Turkey always needs.

Moscow yields to Erdogan's requests to extend the grain deal every time — Russia thus gives Turkey credit for what Turkey does for the Russian Federation under the conditions of total sanctions.

If Ukraine loses this grain export channel, nothing terrible will happen for Kyiv (there are other channels available). Noteworthy, Ukraine's harvest this year will be smaller against the backdrop of the loss of territories.

Black Sea under Ukraine's control

If Moscow had pulled out from the deal a few days before the second round of Turkish elections, it would have struck a blow on Erdogan. In turn, Ukraine would have won a chance to get more arms for itself and sanctions against Moscow from opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu.

There are other motives for the attack:

• show it to Russia that the Turkish Stream can also be destroyed, like the Nord Stream;
• show it to everyone that Ukraine could attack any ships of the "aggressor" and its "sponsors" in the neutral waters of the Black Sea, if Kyiv deems it necessary.

All stories that require an immediate response from the Kremlin usually have a plethora of pitfalls. Sometimes the actions of the leadership seem inadequate, slow and uncreative to the Russians.

However, Putin's prime goal is to win the war against NATO, the military potential of which is ten times superior to the Russian army, let alone the comparison in economic potential (dozens and dozens of times superior). It must also be taken into account that large private businesses in Russia, often transnational, is not at all happy with the military operation. It will do everything to come to an agreement with the West.

Therefore, there is an immense amount of work underway at BRICS, OPEC, the EAEU, the SCO, and so on, to change absolutely everything that currently represents our visible life. The price of the mistake is high — Russia may disappear as a civilisation.

The attack on the Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea is not only a challenge to Russia and Turkey. This is a small puzzle in the big picture of the changing world, a process that Vladimir Putin commands.