Author`s name Lyuba Lulko

Putin will not strike Kyiv. He will strangle Ukraine slowly instead

Ukraine is doing its best to push Russia to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv. However, Putin will not swallow the bait.

The assassination of Russian journalist Darya Dugina, attempts to attack Crimea, shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, border outposts and regional centers of the Russian Federation — all of those attacks were terrorist attacks, the purpose of which was to make Putin show a tough response to Ukraine.

There are "hotheads" in Russia that wonder why Russia is too reluctant to finally "start" fighting in Ukraine. They also urge the Russian president to hit the decision-making centers. Putin will not agree to this, so as not to repeat the path of Napoleon to and from Moscow. Napoleon came to Moscow with a victory that did not last long, and he left the Russian capital with a defeat that ended Napoleon Bonaparte himself.

Putin may declare Ukraine's entire leadership terrorists and order to bomb the center of Kyiv with Kinzhal missiles. But what next?

What if Russia strikes decision-making renters in Kyiv?

First, Zelensky and the team will survive in bomb shelters.

Secondly, the bombing of Kyiv will be the reason for NATO's decision to get into the war with Russia. The Brits have already said that they would be ready to go to war.

Thirdly, many Ukrainians will stand together against Russia to continue their useless resistance.

Economy determines the pace of the special operation

Putin will not rush to make such a decision.

Moscow needs time to "digest" those territories that have already been liberated. In order to do this, one needs to bring life into order there. People need new jobs, new homes, their children need to go to schools and kindergartens and so on and so forth. There should be real reasons for the Ukrainians to go to the polls and decide whether to join Russia or not. Otherwise, people will ignore it.

One should also solve a complex of economic problems inside Russia. The Russian economy leaves much to be desired as it goes through the process of major transition. The federal budget deficit for July 2022 amounted to a record 892 billion rubles (compared to a surplus of 261 billion a year ago). In the worst case scenario, it could amount to six trillion rubles in a year.

Economists point out that Russia's income has declined since June, while expenses have grown by 25-27 percent year on year. The inflation is high too — about 16 percent. Russia needs to adapt to sanctions, develop science and technology while maintaining all the previous social gains.

Putin chose the tactics of slow strangulation of Ukraine

Putin chose a different tactic — he will strangle the Kyiv regime slow. In military terms, Russia will grind the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the eastern front and liberate the DPR.

Moscow will continue pushing the Ukrainian regime towards economic collapse. According to official data, Ukraine's budget deficit amounts to about 4-5 billion dollars a month. The printing press is working, inflation is progressing.

According to Western rating agencies, Ukraine will lose 40 percent of GDP by the end of the year. Ukraine already experiences an undeclared default while its public debt is growing — it will soon reach 100 percent of GDP.

Ukraine has already lost its main ports, energy resources, granaries, deposits. Needless to say that Kyiv needs to maintain its million-strong army too. This can only be possible with the help of Western loans, but it will be difficult for the Kyiv regime to obtain them. There is no offensive of the Ukrainian army at the front, which means that there are no prospects for preserving the Kyiv regime. Therefore, Ukraine may not return any loans at all.

The West will not withstand the pressure

The Russian president knows that a long conflict in Ukraine will cost the West a lot. Western countries may eventually stop supporting Ukraine, and Zelensky will be over with.

The West will not see a revolution in Russia. It will fail to bring another liberal to power, who would cause the Russian Federation to collapse. Globalists will not win here.

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