The Stratfor analysts concluded that political situation in Russia is more stable than it seems to be.
The West believes that drastic fall of the oil prices in addition to the Western economic sanctions, imposed after the Russia's annexation of the Crimea given its support of separatists on the East of Ukraine, will provoke such economic and social tensions in Russia, which would become a real threat to the government of President Vladimir Putin. Steven Hall, the agency's expert, noted that it's not a correct take on the state of affairs.
The problem is that the authors analyze Putin, Kremlin, and events in Russia from an overly Western perspective. In fact, Putin's power in Russia and his authority over the Russians remain strong, despite circumstances which could put an end to the political career of most of the Western leaders.
Hall also said that assumptions that economic conditions would keep deteriorating in Russia, as well as dissatisfaction and riots among the Russians would reach a level, which would become a threat to the current status quo, do not hold true. 'When the Russian government explains economic hardship in a nationalistic fashion and blames external forces such as the European Union or the United States, tolerating scarcity becomes almost a national sport, and certainly a matter of great national pride,' the expert noted.