Mikhail Delyagin: Act of Terror – preparations and realization

Director of the Institute for globalization problems Mikhail Delyagin has recently published the work, which was basically devoted to the terror attack in the United States of America. PRAVDA.Ru publishes the most interests moments of it.

Such operation, which was organized and performed in a very difficult way, could not be done by Arabs only. Their culture does not allow to do planning with precision since everything is “in Allah’s hands.” However, the coincidence with the assassination of the Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Masood, the events in Chechnya testify to Arabs’ involvement in the terror. Probable cooperation with the American Muslims (Farahana organization has up to 3 million people as its members) can explain the roots of terrorism in the American society, but the preparation of the act does not actually seem to be possible without the organizers and psychologists from the western countries or from Israel. The connection of the special forces is also possible (the terrorists could have chosen CIA instead of the Pentagon).

In order to remove this contradiction – “the act of terrorism could not be performed without the indirect participation or awareness of the special forces that it could not be performed by the special forces themselves,” must be considered as an event, against which the entire world community must stand. This principle was basically formed during the times of the Cold War in order to destabilize the potential enemy without the nuclear warfare threat. It is not possible to struggle against this phenomenon, because if special services assisted in some terrorist organizations, then discovering those organizations would also imply unveiling the special services involved. And that is absolutely out of the question. The movement Taliban with its heroin laboratories, which funded the movement, was set up by the U.S. and Pakistan special services.

The situation becomes more difficult because of “the self-funding of the special operations”. In order to guarantee the efficient independence, the special services were probably involved in business.

The more democratic a country is the more difficult it is to get the official funding of the special operations; the bigger is the threat of the social exposure. This difficulty and this threat were supposed to give incentive to “special operations self-funding” practice (including via the drug commerce as well). The special services of weaker countries did not achieve the requisite independent cooperation with drug mafia – they remained like the branch offices of the special services from the developed states. So the mentioned practice had better chances in highly-developed countries.

Accordingly, the connection between the special services and the drug mafia, their dependence on it, should not be weaker in the developed democratic countries than in the relatively authoritarian ones. The services can not help getting the influence of the drug mafia, when using it in its purposes. The classic example of that – NATO’s support to the drug guerrillas in Kosovo, which resulted in Kosovo’s separation and turning the province in “paradise for drug mafia”.

It is impossible for certain elements of special services to totally come out of the civil control, but it is actually inevitable to a certain extent. If coming out of the civil control, the special services turn to the independent subjects of the world politics. In this resect the act of terror of September 11 really was a token of the new stage of development of the humanity. The independence of the special services was exercised earlier though - the versions pertaining to the absence of the FBI’s reaction to the information about the preparations to J.F. Kennedy’s assassination was a very good illustration.

So one may assume that the terror attack in New York and Washington was performed with at least indirect participation of the special services elements, which came out of the public control. The vigorous reaction of the developed countries had a goal to conceal that homely fact.

It is impossible to discover the motives of that outrage due to the lack of information and the difficulty to analyze the combination of geopolitics, the psychiatry of force, the world economy. But the consequences of the terror act, which were on the whole favorable for the U.S.A. and Israel are the indication of high precision and adequacy of estimations.

After the attack was over the world economy stumbled, but did not fall. It has definitely worsened the forecasts for development of the world economy. The IMF stated the growth of the economy in the world in the year 2001 dropped from 3.2% to 2.6%, in 2002 it is said to go down from 3.9% to 3.5%. The developing markets will have to experience the worst. The investments in their securities will decrease – from $146.4 billion in 2000 to $128.2 billion in 2001 (by 12.4%), and to $117 billion in 2002 (by 8.7% more). The Gross Domestic Product in the U.S.A. raised by 0.3% in the second quarter of the current year (according to the latest information), when the growth of 0.2% was forecasted. Most likely this index will drop in the third quarter of 2001.

At the same time the consequences of the terror act seem to be exaggerated. The act of terrorism seriously hit the stock markets, but did not destabilize the currency markets. The coordinated actions of the States and Arab countries that were frightened by the U.S.A. allowed to give incentive to the economy of the developed countries by means of reducing the interest rates and oil prices (down to the pre-crisis level), in spite of the fact the oil prices went up right after the attack. But on September 21 oil became cheaper than it was on September 10 - by 7.4%. This allowed not only to correct, but also to restore the stock markets (with the exception for the Japanese one that crashed). Dow Jones dropped by 14.3% within September 10-21, but on September 28 it gained 7.3% - to 8837.45 points, from 8232,49 points registered on September 21.

The recreation of the world stock market allowed to gradually recreate the oil price. The price of oil increased by 4.9% - from $22.02 per barrel on September 24 to $23.10 on September 28. There is no need to be afraid lest the Dow Jones should drop, or lest dollar should lose its vital function on the financial markets of the world.

On the whole it can be said, the world economy showed the enviable stability. The U.S.A. is still the technological leader, producing 38% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product. Neither oil, nor even stock markets experienced any drastic events.

I can assume the stable growth of the American economy will start in the middle of 2002. The world economy will slow down, but it will not be depressed.