Parallel Auto Imports to Russia Fall, but Experts Predict Structural Change

Last year, the volume of passenger cars imported into Russia through alternative channels declined. Experts agree on the reasons behind the downturn but differ in their assessments of the segment's future prospects. They shared their views with Izvestia.

Over the year, approximately 172,000 passenger cars under three years old were supplied to the Russian market, representing a 5 percent decline compared to the previous year, when more than 181,000 vehicles were imported. These figures were cited by analyst Sergey Tselikov.

Shifts in Supply Geography

The geography of supplies changed in different directions. China remained the leading source, delivering 71,300 vehicles, accounting for more than 41.4 percent of all alternative imports. Supplies from China increased by 22 percent.

Kyrgyzstan ranked second with a 31.1 percent share, or 53,600 vehicles, though imports through this route fell by 24 percent. An even sharper decline of 34 percent was recorded for Belarus, which supplied 17,100 vehicles, reducing its share to 9.9 percent.

At the same time, South Korea, which accounted for 7.2 percent of supplies or 12,200 vehicles, demonstrated a dramatic increase of 269 percent.

Brand Performance

Among individual brands, Toyota remained the most popular, with imports rising by 45 percent to just over 30,000 vehicles. Imports of BMW increased by 35 percent to 18,000 units.

By contrast, imports of Geely fell by 29 percent to 17,600 vehicles, while LiXiang dropped by 57 percent to 10,300 units. Mercedes-Benz rounded out the top five with 10,200 vehicles imported, reflecting growth of 32 percent.

Expert Opinions on Future Trends

Experts attribute these dynamics to tighter controls in certain countries and logistical advantages in others. Opinions diverge, however, regarding the future of alternative imports.

Analyst Sergey Tselikov and Maksim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of the magazine Za Rulem, agree that total volumes in 2026 will decline only slightly. At the same time, they expect the structure of imports to change significantly due to new recycling fee calculation rules that take engine power into account.

"BMW, Toyota, and Kia all have models or modifications with engines producing up to 160 horsepower that qualify for recycling fee benefits. Most likely, the share of such vehicles in alternative imports will increase,” Kadakov said.

By contrast, Anton Shaparin, vice president of the National Automobile Union, believes that imports through unofficial channels could shrink by one and a half to two times, as the new rules make the import of many popular, especially powerful and premium, models unprofitable.

"An extremely small number of buyers of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, or any other premium brand choose entry-level trims and modifications. Even among mass-market brands, there are very few crossover versions with engines producing up to 160 horsepower,” the auto expert concluded.