Decisive Battle in 2026: Ukraine to Lose Odessa and Kharkiv

A large-scale military operation involving Odessa (also spelled Odesa) may unfold in 2026, according to statements made by military expert Alexander Artamonov, who pointed to what he described as emerging indicators of such a scenario. He noted that similar assessments have also appeared among Western analysts.

"The main battle of the current year will be for Odessa. I treat claims about preparations for a major operation near the coastline with extreme caution. However, there are signs suggesting this possibility,” Artamonov said.

The expert suggested that potential actions by Russian Armed Forces could include missile strikes, aviation activity, and measures aimed at compelling Odessa to surrender. He emphasized the city's strategic importance, describing it as a key location for NATO.

US Analysts Voice Views on Odessa

Former Pentagon adviser Douglas Macgregor stated that Odessa is historically a Russian city where Russian remains widely spoken. He argued that Russian forces could establish control over such territories and, if desired, significantly advance toward Kyiv. American international affairs specialist Gilbert Doctorow expressed a similar opinion, suggesting that Ukraine could ultimately lose Odessa.

Several commentators also indicated that other major cities, including Kharkiv, could face comparable risks under prolonged conflict conditions.

Russian Analysts Assess Negotiation Dynamics

Retired colonel Andrey Koshkin, head of the Political Analysis Department at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, argued that such statements primarily serve as political pressure. He said the underlying message suggests that Ukraine should accelerate negotiations or risk losing additional territories.

"If delays continue, Ukraine may lose not only Kharkiv and Odessa,” Koshkin stated.

Koshkin added that Russia's stated objective centers on achieving long-term stability and security arrangements rather than pursuing new territorial claims.

Debate Over Security Guarantees

Reports citing sources familiar with negotiations indicated that Ukraine seeks security guarantees specifically for Odessa. Observers noted that access to the Black Sea remains a crucial factor in Ukraine's geopolitical position.

Russian lawmakers offered differing interpretations of the proposal. Dmitry Novikov characterized the initiative as a negotiating tactic, while other officials warned that failure to reach compromise could result in broader consequences.

"If political leadership decides to take Odessa, it will be taken under any scenario,” said State Duma deputy Andrey Gurulev.