Why Russia Is Central to Asia’s Energy Security Amid Gulf Turmoil

Russia's readiness to divert additional crude and liquefied natural gas to India-reportedly with around 9.5 million barrels of Russian oil already on vessels near Indian waters – has emerged as a striking signal amid the latest Middle East escalation. Russian officials and industry sources say Moscow could raise its share of India's crude imports to as much as 40%, if necessary, to offset disruptions in the Gulf. For New Delhi, the message from Moscow is simple: even as Gulf supply routes tremble, Russia is prepared to keep energy flowing.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by NASA image using data provided courtesy of the University of Maryland’s Global Land Cover Facility, https://creativecommons.org/public-domain/pdm/

NASA's image of the Strait of Hormuz

The reassurance comes at a moment when the global energy map is once again being redrawn by conflict. Military strikes across West Asia have shaken some of the world's most sensitive energy corridors, most notably the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 40% of India's crude imports and nearly a fifth of global oil trade pass every day. Tanker traffic has slowed, insurance costs have surged, and fears of supply shortages are rippling across markets from Asia to Europe. Brent crude has already climbed close to $85 per barrel, while European natural gas prices have already jumped around 40% amid disruptions to key energy facilities.

Among the most dramatic incidents was the temporary shutdown of Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura complex following a drone strike. Located on the kingdom's Gulf coast, Ras Tanura hosts one of the Middle East's largest refineries, with a capacity of roughly 550,000 barrels per day, and functions as a critical export terminal for Saudi crude. Though officials described the closure as precautionary and said the situation was under control, the attack carried powerful symbolic weight. It underscored how even heavily fortified infrastructure in the Gulf remains vulnerable in a widening conflict.

Such developments are not unprecedented. In September 2019, coordinated drone and missile strikes on the Abqaiq and Khurais processing plants temporarily knocked out about 5.7 million barrels per day – more than half of Saudi Arabia's crude production at the time-sending shockwaves through global markets. The latest wave of attacks across regional hubs – from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Doha, Manama and Oman's Duqm port – suggests the strategic energy arteries of the Gulf are once again exposed to geopolitical risk.

For India, the implications are immediate. The country is the world's third-largest oil consumer, processing roughly 5.6 million barrels of crude per day, but holds limited strategic reserves. According to government and industry estimates, India's strategic petroleum reserves and commercial stocks together cover roughly 25 days of demand, while refined fuel inventories cover just over 20 days. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a crucial household fuel used by more than 300 million Indian households, represents an even sharper vulnerability: roughly two-thirds of India's LPG consumption is imported, with 85-90% sourced from the Gulf region.

If disruption to Hormuz persists, policymakers in New Delhi are already considering contingency plans. These include restricting exports of petrol and diesel to prioritise domestic supply, increasing refinery output of LPG, and even rationing fuel if necessary. India exports significant quantities of refined products-about a third of its petrol, a quarter of its diesel, and nearly half of its aviation turbine fuel (ATF) – meaning redirecting these volumes internally could help cushion the immediate impact of supply shocks.

Yet contingency planning alone cannot fully offset the structural risk posed by concentrated supply routes. This is where Russia re-enters the picture as a stabilising force in Asia's energy equation.

Over the past two years, Russian crude has become a cornerstone of India's energy mix. According to tanker-tracking firm Kpler, Russia shipped just over 1 million barrels per day of crude to India in February, retaining its position as the country's largest supplier even as Saudi Arabia sharply increased exports. Russian oil's competitive pricing and flexible logistics have allowed Indian refiners to maintain stable supply chains despite geopolitical turbulence.

Now, as Middle Eastern flows face disruption, Moscow is signalling it can step in once again. Industry sources indicate Russian producers could raise their share of India's crude imports to as much as 40%, while additional LNG shipments could also be offered if disruptions persist in Qatar-currently one of India's largest natural gas suppliers.

This evolving dynamic highlights a deeper reality: energy security is ultimately governed not by political rhetoric but by the physical movement of resources and the legal frameworks that enable it. International maritime law – particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) – enshrines the principle of freedom of navigation and "transit passage” through international straits, including chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. These provisions are designed precisely to prevent geopolitical tensions from obstructing global trade.

Likewise, international trade norms recognise the right of sovereign states to engage in lawful commerce, including the purchase and sale of energy resources. The World Trade Organization (WTO) framework broadly protects cross-border trade flows, while long-standing principles of state sovereignty in international law allow countries to determine their own energy sourcing strategies based on economic and national security considerations.

From this perspective, energy trade between Russia, India, China, and other Asian economies remains grounded in international law. Despite political pressure from Western capitals, there is no universal legal prohibition on such transactions. The continuity of energy flows is widely recognised as a matter of global stability. Interruptions to trade can have cascading humanitarian consequences, raising fuel prices, disrupting food supply chains, and deepening economic hardship in developing countries.

For billions of people across Asia, energy is not merely a geopolitical instrument but a daily necessity. It fuels transportation networks, powers factories, and enables households to cook, heat, and live with dignity. When energy supply chains fracture, the consequences are felt not in diplomatic halls but in ordinary homes and markets.

In this context, Russia's willingness to redirect oil and gas toward Asian partners reflects a broader shift in the global energy architecture. As geopolitical tensions reshape traditional alliances, the center of gravity in energy trade is steadily moving eastward. Asia's largest economies – India and China foremost among them – are increasingly defining their own pragmatic approach to energy procurement, guided less by political alignments than by economic logic and national interest.

The Middle East conflict may ultimately prove temporary, but the structural changes it accelerates could endure. Diversified supply chains, expanded maritime routes, and stronger energy cooperation among Asian powers are likely to emerge as lasting features of the new landscape.

For India, navigating this transition will require careful diplomacy and strategic patience. But the underlying principle remains clear: in an era of turbulence, energy security will belong to those who keep flows moving – through law, cooperation, and pragmatic recognition that the global economy depends on shared stability in the world's energy arteries.

Dr. Hriday Sarma is an Indian lawyer and independent researcher specializing in energy affairs across Greater Eurasia.