What future is in store for Iran?

The disappearance of Syria as a sovereign and independent country has led to the inevitable withdrawal of the Russian contingent from the bases it had since the days, now long gone and almost lost in myth, of the Soviet Union. Russia no longer has its air and naval foothold on the Mediterranean (which is now to all intents and purposes an American lake) and towards Africa and it is unclear with what it can replace this strategic loss. In the immediate future perhaps with nothing, we should honestly acknowledge.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Sonia Sevilla, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

The flag of Iran

Iran too has lost a formidable fulcrum for what Ayatollah Ali Khamenei still calls the "Axis of Resistance” and which now seems to us something reduced to tatters, a pale reminder of the powerful set-up it had been under Nasrallah and Haji Qasem.

The Iran of the Islamic revolution is as antithetical to the Western world as Christian Orthodox Russia is. But it is also antithetical to Israel and still openly aligned in defence of the Palestinians, or what is now left of this martyred people, before their final deportation no one knows where.

Donald Trump, back in the White House, is more determined than ever to settle scores with Tehran to satisfy Tel-Aviv's wishes and bring Iran back under Western control. Thus, a new war, both direct and by proxy, will soon be waged, including (but not only) through the Mojahedin-e Khalq organisation, founded in 1965 and pompously called the "National Liberation Army of Iran”. It is clear that Westerners have always regarded the MEK as a tool to be used at the appropriate time, and perhaps its time has indeed come.

Below are the answers of Iranian geopolitical analyst Alireza Nikam, an expert on the Middle East and the Mojahedin-e Khalq organization.

Damascus fell a short time ago. How was this event experienced in Iran?

The recent fall of Damascus and the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad have had profound repercussions in Iran, both at the governmental level and among the general populace. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, addressed the nation, attributing Assad's downfall to a "joint US-Israeli plot” and emphasizing that this event would not weaken Iran's position and the axis of resistance. He stated, "Iran is strong and powerful and will become even more powerful”, Other Iranian officials have echoed this sentiment, with some assigning blame to Assad's leadership for the government's collapse. Rasoul Sanaei-Rad, a political affairs official in Iran's leader office, referred to Assad's fall as disastrous, attributing it to "the deception of a portion of the Syrian people who supported the armed groups in taking control of their country's fate”. From the onset of Tahrir al-Sham's attacks on Syria, the people of Iran had declared their readiness to fight against this terrorist group, with some even beginning to register the names of people for potential deployment. The Iranian people have repeatedly proven that they dedicate everything they can to the Axis of Resistance. Examples include collecting public donations for Lebanon's reconstruction, which were sent to this country, and in the case of Syria, even being willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake of God and to protect the Syrian people. Iranians have frequently pressured government officials to provide military aid to Syria and have, therefore, taken to the streets multiple times to protest against Israel and the United States in support of Syria.

In your opinion, what were the reasons for this sudden collapse?

Iranian intelligence officials had warned Bashar al-Assad three months before Syria's collapse that an attack would take place in the near future. However, Assad placed his trust in his country's army. In line with this, some Syrian officials, through obstructionist actions, requested that Iranian forces leave Syria. As a result, nearly 90% of Iranian forces had withdrawn from Syrian territory, leaving everything in the hands of the Syrian army. Iran repeatedly warned Assad a month before the attack that certain Syrian military officials were working for Israel and the United States, motivated by financial incentives and threats to their families. Yet, Assad, confident in his military, ignored these warnings until he faced complete betrayal by his army that at the end, on the morning of Syria's fall, with the support of remaining Iranian forces and Russian air force, Assad fled the country and went to Moscow. The Islamic Republic of Iran is well aware that Israel and the United States aim to target Iraq next in their efforts to weaken the Axis of Resistance. Therefore, Iran will significantly strengthen the resistance forces in Iraq. Iraqi leaders have a strong and close relationship with Iran, making it easier for Iran to provide military support to them. One of the reasons for Assad's downfall was his turning away from Iran. From the onset of Tahrir al-Sham's attacks, he never requested assistance from Iran. Iranian forces had positioned all the necessary unites and equipment at the border, ready to assist Syria, but Assad, under the pretext of avoiding a new war, did not seek help from Iran. Instead, he chose to surrender his country to the terrorists, unaware that these terrorists, backed by Israel, would turn Syria into a war zone. The key lesson from Syria's collapse is that even if you surrender your country to the enemy, it will still lead to destruction of your nation. In post-Assad Syria, there are daily massacres, abductions of women and girls, the destruction of families, and the looting of vital oil and gas reserves. Is this what the Syrian people celebrated for?

Iran helped Syria a lot, especially in the most terrible stages of the war imposed by the West. Did General Soleimani fight and then die in vain?

General Soleimani played a vital role in supporting the Syrian government during the ISIS attack on the country, especially during critical moments when the survival of Bashar al-Assad's government was at risk. He acted fast at Assad's request for assistance. General Soleimani was instrumental in organizing local forces and coordinating military operations that brought together diverse groups, including the Syrian Army, Hezbollah, and other allied forces. His strategic measures and leadership significantly contributed to the survival of Assad's government and helped the recapture of key areas such as Aleppo and Palmyra, and the defeat of ISIS. Were these efforts in vain? From an Islamic perspective, the sacrifice of a martyr is never in vain if it is made in the defense of justice and the support of the oppressed, or resistance against tyranny. General Soleimani's efforts to preserve Syria as part of the Axis of Resistance were grounded in this framework. His legacy in Syria and across the Axis of Resistance has fostered the ideology of resistance among the people. For instance, Iraq was occupied by the United States in 2003, but after General Soleimani's involvement in Iraq, the country now has a strong force alongside its army known as the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces). These mobilization forces are equipped with the knowledge of building drones, missiles, and weapons. Empowered by the ideology of resistance, they now attack American forces in Iraq and push them back. Thus, the efforts of this great Iranian commander were never futile. Regarding Syria, as stated by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khamenei, "Syria will be liberated by its own youth”. In essence, it is the ideology of resistance that leads to the liberation of a country, even in the event of complete occupation. This is what terrifies Western powers, who constantly seek to destroy it. Yet, this ideology never fades and only grows stronger.

Syria was the main pivot of the Axis of Resistance. What remains of it now?

Parts of Syria remain under the control of various groups, including Kurdish forces, scattered terrorist factions, and even the influence of foreign powers such as Turkey, Israel, and the United States. The prolonged civil war has devastated Syria's infrastructure and severely weakened its economy. High rates of poverty, unemployment, and internal and external migration reflect Syria's critical situation. Even though parts of Syria are under occupation, it is still recognized as a part of the Axis of Resistance. In the near future, Syria will witness changes in power, and it is certain that control will be taken from the hands of Tahrir al-Sham terrorists and returned to the Syrian people. While Syria continues to symbolize the steadfastness of the Axis of Resistance against Western and regional schemes, its internal and external crises have significantly limited its capacity. The future of Syria largely depends on the ability of Iran and its allies to maintain their influence in the country. Additionally, resolving internal conflicts and managing interactions with regional and international players will play a critical role in shaping Syria's position within the Axis of Resistance. The Axis of Resistance is not confined to any specific location or country; rather, it is an ideology. Let me provide an example: Hamas faced intense attacks from Israel for over a year, losing many of its members and leaders. Yet, the ideology of resistance allowed 4,000 people from Gaza to join the group just in the last week to continue the fight against Israel. This is the very essence of the Axis of Resistance, an ideology that nurtures a mighty tree even in a barren desert.

What will become of the Palestinian people?

The people of Palestine have proven over the past century to be among the most resilient people. They have emerged steadfastly from the numerous genocides committed by Israel and have continued their struggle without faltering. The destiny of the Palestinian people is defined by their fight, resistance, and steadfastness against occupation and oppression. The Axis of Resistance has always believed that the liberation of Palestine is a religious, humanitarian, and strategic duty that must be pursued through various political, military, and cultural means. Palestinian resistance groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other fighting forces have strengthened their military capabilities with the support of the Axis of Resistance. Armed resistance remains the primary strategy to counter the aggressions of the Zionist regime and establish deterrence, that is a reality well understood by the Palestinian people. In the ongoing war in Gaza, the Zionists demanded that the people of Gaza hand over Hamas fighters to end the attacks on civilians. However, not only did the people refuse to betray anyone, but the number of individuals joining Hamas has grown daily. The Palestinian people have learned that resistance is better than humiliation in the face of the enemy, and they consistently prioritize this principle in their actions. With God's help, the people of Palestine, through the heavy blows they have dealt to the Zionists and their unwavering resistance, will ultimately bring their enemy to its knees.

After Syria and Lebanon, inevitably Yemen and especially Iran. In your opinion, how likely is the final confrontation between the Islamic Republic and the Zionist entity?

Since the dawn of humanity, there has always been a struggle between the forces of good (followers of justice and truth) and the forces of evil (oppressors and aggressors). This battle has taken various forms, including the struggle of prophets against tyrants, Imam Hussain's (peace be upon him) uprising in Karbala, and today's resistance against the Zionist regime. The confrontation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Zionist regime can be seen as part of this historical battle. After the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the spirit of Islamic resistance spread not only within Iran but across the Middle East. Hezbollah in Lebanon, various resistance groups in Palestine, and popular forces in Yemen and Iraq form the chain of resistance that stands against the sinister plans of global Zionism. Israel's repeated defeats in Lebanon and Gaza, as well as the United States' failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, reflect the decline of the forces of evil. The Islamic Republic of Iran, as the heart of the Axis of Resistance, has repeatedly declared its mission to confront global oppression and support the oppressed. Iranian leaders have emphasized that the Zionist regime, described as a "cancerous tumor”, must be eradicated from the pages of history. Thus, the ultimate confrontation between Iran and Israel is seen as an inevitable step toward establishing global justice. The United States and Israel, through intensified sanctions, proxy wars, and cyberattacks, have sought to weaken Iran. However, Iran has not only resisted these efforts but has also strengthened its military, economic, and scientific capabilities, to the extent that countries in various conflicts now use Iranian-made equipment. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and the commanders of the Axis of Resistance have repeatedly stressed their readiness for the "final battle”. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the late Secretary-General of Hezbollah in Lebanon, has also stated that any war against Iran would mark the end of the Zionist regime. According to divine promises and Quranic verses, ultimate victory belongs to the forces of good. The Quran mentions that the Zionists will cause corruption on Earth "twice”, and both times, they will face severe defeat at the hands of the forces of good. The first time was during the era of Prophet Solomon (peace be upon him), when they were defeated under his leadership. Now, the second promise of their downfall is at hand.

The final confrontation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Zionist regime is highly likely and is part of the grand narrative of the historical struggle between good and evil. This conflict may begin with further provocations by the forces of evil and their support for anti-resistance movements, but its conclusion will be the victory of the forces of good and the fulfillment of the divine promise. This battle is not only for the liberation of Palestine and the eradication of the Zionist regime but also for establishing global justice and paving the way for the emergence of the savior of humanity.

Can you tell us how the MEK will position itself in the event of war?

The terrorist group of MEK (Mujahedin-e Khalq) has consistently demonstrated betrayal of its own country at every level. Following the Islamic Revolution and during the Iran-Iraq War, this group assassinated many Iranian citizens, with the number exceeding 17,000. This led to their inclusion on the U. S. list of terrorist organizations (FTO). During its collaboration with Saddam Hussein, MEK provided Iraq with intelligence on Iranian communications and operational zones. Ultimately, the group launched a direct attack on its own country, suffering a decisive defeat at the hands of Iran's armed forces. Despite the advanced age of its members and their diminished ability to engage in operational or military activities, the MEK continues to act against Iran's interests, serving the enemies of the nation in modern conflicts as well. The Axis of Resistance has always regarded the MEK as a tool in the hands of imperialist powers and enemies of the Iranian people. Due to its betrayal during the imposed war and its terrorist activities, the group has never held any legitimacy among Iranians. Even Iranian opposition groups have expressed their disdain for the MEK. However, the group's history of collaboration with Israel's Mossad demonstrates that its true employer is the Zionist regime, the "mother of all terrorists” in the world. Nevertheless, the deep-seated public hatred for the MEK among Iranians and the strength of the Axis of Resistance in countering foreign conspiracies serve as significant barriers to the group's and its backers' objectives.