The West will have to take much efforts to shake Alexander Lukashenko's steadfast regime
Western high-ranking politicians refer to the republic of Belarus, headed by President Alexander Lukashenko, as "the last dictatorship" in Europe. Politicians promise not to save any money in their efforts to deprive the “European dictator” of his power.
Both the Belarussian opposition and its US and European supporters persistently repeat that the change of the ruling regime is coming in Belarus. They add, however, that it will happen in a peaceful way, avoiding the experience of Georgia and Ukraine. It is worth mentioning that Alexander Lukashenko has not been noticed for his political likeness to former Georgian and Ukrainian presidents, Eduard Shevardnadze and Leonid Kuchma.
The Belarus authorities strictly control the local opposition. The West will have to make up new ways to overthrow Mr. Lukashenko. One may say that one method has been already found and tested.
Offices of several Belarussian newspapers received a statement from the formerly unknown Belarussian People's Liberating Army on May 31st. Members of the “army” urge to overthrow Alexander Lukashenko from the post of the president and to liquidate the political, ideological and propaganda machine of the incumbent Belarus administration. Political appeals from the People's Liberating Army say that one should establish the government of national confidence and run independent and free elections of both the parliament and the president. The organization called upon the authorities to conducting negotiations with representatives of the democratic opposition to extricate from the crisis urgently. Otherwise, the “army” promised to pronounce the territory of Belarus the battlefield of the People's Liberating Army of Belarus. The deadline was set on June 15th. The authors of the statement said that they would target banks, means of communication, governmental agencies and their employees, Belarussian News website wrote.
Several states of Eastern Europe - Belarus, Moldavia and Poland - are meanwhile panicking over the rumors about a breakdown, which supposedly occurred on a nuclear power plant of one of the neighboring states. It obviously goes about Belarus's Chernobyl. Needless to say that there was no breakdown at the station. However, the increasing panic among the population forced the Belarussian authorities to distribute an official rejection of the rumors.
The People's Liberating Army of Belarus issued a statement on June 3rd, in which it claimed responsibility for the message about the nuclear breakdown. It brings up the idea that such actions can be referred to as measures that the “Army” taking to dethrone the incumbent Belarussian administration.
The Belarussian opposition believes, however, that both the statement from the People's Liberating Army and the rumor about a breakdown on Chernobyl nuclear power plant originally came from special services of Belarus. The services supposedly started the rumors in order to launch repressions against Alexander Lukashenko's adversaries. The rumors can be easily ascribed to the opposition as well, which probably decided to take such measures to find out to which extent Belarus citizens trust the official information.
Most likely, the above-mentioned People's Liberating Army of Belarus does not exist. It is either the fruit of spin doctors' imagination, or there is one certain person (or a small group of people), who conducts such activities. It is noteworthy that the described affairs in Belarus can be compared to the ones in Russia. Any notorious or scandalous statement aimed against the incumbent administration receives an extensive coverage and response. As a rule, the source of such declarations does not represent a serious political force. Furthermore, such people do not have any chances to become such a force even in remote perspective.
On the other hand, the West and certain post-Soviet states wish to see a strong and well-organized opposition to current Russian and Belarussian administrations. Such a wish is estranged from reality, though. One may continue calling Mr. Lukashenko a dictator, but there is no other person in Belarus, who could lead the nation.
By summer, the Russian army may break through Ukrainian defences, reach Odessa and liberate Transnistria. The West will only “condemn” Russia's actions and continue supporting Chisinau in words