Turkey’s Ministry of Defense is preparing a plan of military invasion into the North of Iraq. This information was made public by the local media on Tuesday. The objects of attack will be the terrorist bases of the Kurdistan Workers Party. The reason for the invasion may be the recent murders of 15 members of the Turkish special services.
However, this information has not been officially confirmed. Has Cemil Cicek, Turkey’s Minister of Justice really announced that his country is “determined to make full use of its international rights”? And if this is the case, what if the USA and Iraq do not react to Turkey’s call to suppress the attacks of Kurdish separatists?
According to all sources, Ankara is not counting on much help. Otherwise, how can we explain the announcement of Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “We know how to cope with the terrorism problem on our own. Our competent services have begun preparations and will continue.”
However, such announcements do not mean that the Turkish government is definitely ready to give the signal to its army for the realization of a large-scale military operation. In principal, one can draw comparisons between the current Israel-Lebanon-Hezbollah conflict and the probable Turkey-Iraq-Kurdistan Workers Party conflict. But Israel can count on the unspoken support of the USA . Can the same be said of Turkey?
“Ankara has no chance of carrying out a military operation in Iraq. It is simply impossible under current conditions,” Sergei Demidenko, an expert from the institute for strategic evaluations and analyses informed Pravda.ru. In his opinion, the USA will not allow the Turks to organize anything remotely representative of large-scale military action, and invading Iraq is certainly out of the question.
The reason is simple, Turkish involvement will threaten to break up the neighboring country. And one can hardly call the situation in Iraq stable. So why would the USA want this extra headache?
“I would not disregard information about America negotiating with the Kurdistan Workers party. Not on the subject of the organization of terrorist attacks in Turkey of course. It’s just that they need support in Iraq like they need air. And for that, the USA is prepared to enter into contact with any political forces in that country,” suggests Demidenko.
He also expressed doubt as to the effectiveness of such a type of operation. “Let’s suppose, hypothetically, that Turkish forces invaded the North of Iraq. What then? How will they resolve the problem? The answer is they won’t. The fact is that during the 1990s, the Turks carried out military operations in the North of Iraq several times. There was even an agreement with Saddam Hussein’s regime with regard to this. The effect of such operations was nil. That is to say, nil for Turkey. But for the Kurds, the Turkish military operations were a genuine tragedy. Dozens of villages were destroyed, hundreds were killed, of whom the absolute majority had nothing to do with the Kurdistan Workers Party or the organization of terrorist attacks. Can one be surprised, then, that the Kurdistan Workers Party have never had a shortage of new recruits?” concluded the expert.
Translated by Leila Wilmers
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