Odesa may fall in Russia's hands as Moscow and Washington discuss demilitarisation of Black Sea

First technical negotiations between Russia and the US in Riyadh were dedicated to the Black Sea. The discussions were creative and likely touched on the fate of Odesa.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Zinnsoldat, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

Port of Odesa 18

On March 24, 2025, Russia and the US held talks in Riyadh on the security of navigation in the Black Sea. President Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz, stated that the negotiations would focus on a ceasefire in the Black Sea so that both sides could transport grain, fuel, and resume trade. The Americans first held talks at a hotel with Ukraine before meeting with the Russian delegation, with discussions lasting more than six hours.

Previously, Western media claimed that Ukraine had "successfully pushed the Russian fleet out of the western part of the sea,” calling it "one of Kyiv's most significant military achievements.” However, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) tend to target cargo delivery points for the Armed Forces of Ukraine – primarily the ports of Odesa, where they obliterate anything suspicious.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on March 24 that the previous grain deal included many commitments to Russia that were never fulfilled, referring to the continued blockade of Russian grain and fertilizer exports despite the absence of sanctions.

Russian negotiator Senator Grigory Karasin, who previously oversaw the Ukraine portfolio at the Foreign Ministry, told reporters during a break that the talks were creative. He described them as an interesting discussion on highly relevant topics. The discussions may have also covered NATO aircraft using Black Sea airspace for intelligence gathering in support of Ukrainian forces, which Russia insists must stop.

This week, The New York Times, citing aides to Volodymyr Zelensky, reported that Russia could gain control over the port of Odesa.

Regardless, Russia must secure unhindered trade, ensure the safety of the Crimean Bridge, and protect its Black Sea ports. It remains to be seen how the British are going to react as the UK oversees this region and coordinates Kyiv's operations by supplying Ukraine with unmanned naval drones. If agreements in Riyadh move forward, they could lose the ability to establish military bases, such as the one in Ochakiv.

Serhiy Leshchenko, an adviser to Zelensky's office, stated that Kyiv's delegation would hold further discussions with US officials on Monday following Moscow-Washington negotiations. He warned against expecting a quick agreement, telling Ukrainian media that negotiations typically don't conclude in a single day – sometimes they take months.

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The Port of Odesa or Odesa Sea Port, located near Odesa, is the largest Ukrainian seaport and one of the largest ports in the Black Sea basin, with a total annual traffic capacity of 40 million tonnes (15 million tonnes dry bulk and 25 million tonnes liquid bulk), the only port of Ukraine capable of accepting Panamax class vessels. The port has an immediate access to railways allowing quick transfer of cargo from sea routes to ground transportation. Along with its younger satellite ports of Chornomorsk (1958) and Pivdennyi (1973), the Port of Odesa is a major freight and passenger transportation hub of Ukraine.