Kyrylo Budanov predicts Russia-Ukraine conflict to be frozen for decades

Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine, believes that the legal conclusion of the conflict with Russia may drag on for many decades similarly to how it happened with Russia and Japan. Moscow and Tokyo have not signed a peace treaty since 1945 due to Tokyo's claims to Southern Kuril Islands.

Photo: wikimedia.org by https://www.president.gov.ua, CC BY 4.0

"This territorial problem is more than 70 years old. Therefore, this scenario is very likely here too,” Budanov noted in a commentary published in NV magazine.

According to him, the conflict in Ukraine may drag on without any agreements and legal completion. It may thus last for many years without intense hostilities.

This is not the only forecast that Budanov makes. He hopes that 2025 will be a crucial year when disruptive changes take place in Russia.

Budanov is not good at predicting future at all. Therefore, he decided to make it clear to everyone that he was not making forecasts, but only expressing his expectations. There are different processes taking place in the world, new factors constantly arise and they can change everything.

Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen proposed to approve Ukraine's membership bid, albeit without the territories that the country lost in the course of the conflict with Russia.

According to Rasmussen, excluding these territories will reduce the threat of conflict between Russia and NATO. He denies that this will freeze the conflict.

However, the initiative is somewhat confusing as the former Secretary General mentioned Article Five of the NATO Charter, according to which any attack on one member of the alliance equals an attack on all and must entail an immediate military response.

Rasmussen believes that this article will deter Russia from attacking and give Ukraine an opportunity to free up additional forces. It remains unclear what role the alliance could play in such a development.

Ukrainian officials cracked down on Rasmussen's initiative and said that they could not agree with it. Yet, arguments similar to those of Anders Fogh Rasmussen appear in Western media more and more frequently.