Saxo Bank predicts war economy for the world in 2023

Saxo Bank traditionally published its analytical forecast for the coming year. As always, the forecast from Saxo Bank experts is shocking, to say the least.

According to Saxo's Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen, 2023 will shock the world with wartime economic policies, UK's vote for reunification with the European Union, Emmanuel Macron's resignation from his position of French President, and the rise of China, India and OPEC against dollar-as-a-weapon trend.

"Any belief in a return to the disinflationary pre-pandemic dynamic is impossible because we have entered into a global war economy, with every major power across the world now scrambling to shore up their national security on all fronts; whether in an actual military sense, or due to profound supply-chain, energy and even financial insecurities that have been laid bare by the pandemic experience and Russia's invasion of Ukraine," the report published on the website of Saxo Bank says.

According to predictions from the Danish investment bank, 2023 will see widespread price controls as governments of such developed countries as the US and the UK will not be able to rein in runaway inflation that will cause gold prices to surge up to $3,000 an ounce:

"In a war economy, the government hand will expand mercilessly as long as price pressures threaten stability," Jakobsen says, adding that Western attempts to cap Russian oil prices are doomed to failure.

UK will return to EU

Political turmoil in the recession-ridden UK will lead to the referendum to cancel Brexit after the Labor Party takes power in the third quarter of the year, Saxo analysts said. A vote for reunification is likely to take place, and it will help strengthen the British pound.

Pan-European Army

The published forecast also states that 2023 will see the implementation of the agreement on the formation of the EU army. The report compares the state of affairs in today's Europe and Europe at the beginning of the 20th century:

"The Ukrainian invasion has brought a war economy mentality to Europe on a scale not seen since 1945. And it's not just about the woefully inadequate military capabilities in Western Europe, but also about an industrial, Germany-centred model that has been rendered existentially challenged by Europe cutting itself off from cheap and plentiful Russian oil and gas."

War on the dollar

China, India and OPEC will oppose the dominance of the United States in the global monetary system by creating an international clearing union and a new reserve asset, Saxo predicts:

"It is clear that any country without a long-standing military alliance with the US will find it unacceptable to remain vulnerable to the weaponisation of the global USD system. So, Saxo predicts that these powers hold a conference and agree a new reserve currency to avoid the USD system entirely,"

Other predictions:

  • the Japanese yen will be pegged to the US dollar at 200/1;
  • to "reset" financial system, at least one country will announce meat production ban by 2030;
  • financial laws will be adjusted to eliminate tax havens and close tax loopholes for hedge funds.

Saxo Bank is known for its bold predictions that make investors think about "shocking events" that may happen next year.

Some of the bank's forecasts for 2022 turned out to be accurate. For example, the bank predicted a new cold war on multiple fronts, as well as the growing rivalry between the United States and China.

Author`s name Andrey Mihayloff
Editor Dmitry Sudakov
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