Author`s name Andrey Mihayloff

Putin's Ukraine game will reformat Eurasia and deprive NATO of dominance

One of the main topics of the NATO summit, which started in Madrid on June 28, is Ukraine. According to former US Navy officer and former Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy Seth Cropsey, the participants in the meeting should have thought about the consequences of Kyiv's defeat in the conflict with Russia, since "it would be a disaster" for them.

"Any peace that secures Russian assent will be tantamount to Russian victory. Russian victory will divide and in time destroy the Atlantic Alliance, severely weakening the United States' long-term position in Eurasia,” Cropsey wrote in an article for Asia Times.

The founder of the Yorktown Institute believes, however, that Russian President Putin did not have "grandiose ambitions vis-a-vis NATO" when he started the operation in Ukraine. Yet, "Russian victory would fundamentally transform the Eurasian order," Cropsey wrote.

The unity of the West jeopardised

Cropsey states that despite the fact that NATO and its global partners supply arms to Ukraine and train the Ukrainian military how to use them, the Ukrainians admit that the West will not fight Russia directly.

It appears that the Western coalition is splitting. France, Italy and Germany are the weakest links. They provide military support, but:

  • Emmanuel Macron has already made it clear that he wants to "stop the war without humiliating Russia";
  • Olaf Scholz, despite increasing his government's defense spending, allowed only token supplies;
  • Italy's proposed four-paragraph peace plan reflects the ruling coalition's deep desire to end the conflict.

In addition, Germany and Italy have jointly opened ruble accounts for the purchase of Russian natural gas. Even European heavyweights still buy Russian petrochemical products, albeit it was rebranded as products from Latvia or some other non-oil-producing country.

According to Cropsey, Ukraine's morale is based on the belief that the West supports Kyiv:

"If the West backs out, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must capitulate."

Why the West does not want Kyiv to sign peace with Moscow

"If Putin simply grinds through Ukraine despite NATO's best efforts, the Atlantic Alliance can survive and resist. But if Ukraine's defeat stems from insufficient NATO support or, worse, Western European pressure on Ukraine to accept a crippling peace, Eastern European NATO will crumble," the author of the article wrote.

According to Seth Cropsey:

  • Poland, Romania and Bulgaria will experience outbursts of far-right activities against NATO.
  • Serbia will benefit by seeking to takeover of the Serbian part of Bosnia.
  • The Balkan states will be defenseless without NATO support.
  • Sweden and Finland will be isolated and vulnerable despite their membership in the Atlantic Alliance.

"Western European NATO demanding concessions from Ukraine for peace would destroy the Atlantic Alliance. At a minimum, it would roll back NATO to its 1991 borders, potentially including the Czech Republic and "eastern” Germany," the retired US official concludes.

The collapse of the European NATO system will trigger a similar transformation in the Middle East. NATO will eventually give up its Eurasian dominance to the coalition of Russia, China and Iran. The Taiwan dispute will be resolved. Japan and Australia will then realize that the game was over. So will India. Perhaps they will unite with Russia and put an end to US interests in Asia.

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