The pressure on Russia has been growing every year. This is especially noticeable in the regions that NATO countries and their satellites consider the zone of their strategic interests. Therefore, the West is using hybrid pressure on Russia from all sides. The tension in the Black Sea region will only continue to grow in the near future.
Neither the Americans nor the Europeans are going to leave this section of the Russian border alone - hence the constant NATO war games, and the calls of NATO ships, and the construction of naval bases in Ukraine.
Russia must be fully prepared for new challenges, Andrei Ilnitsky, Advisor to the Russian Defense Minister said. According to him, a huge number of Western analytical centers are involved in countering Russia. According to the latest Rand report, NATO is preparing to destabilize the Black Sea region, and Russia must act proactively.
Andrei Ilnitskiy noted that the military aspect was singled out in a special way in seven sections of the Rand report. Special attention should be paid to work in the civilian environment, in the international, be it riots in Belarus, the war Karabakh or any other spark that may start a fire.
Transnistria can also be included on the list. Yet, the Russian authorities do not act preventively. They do not have any strategy or actions on their own agenda in this regard. Russia should not reflect on the Rand agenda - instead one needs about the critical situation brewing in the Black Sea region.
The October report "Russia, NATO and Black Sea Security" directly speaks of the strategy of the comprehensive containment of the Russian Federation in southern Europe. It directly describes methods of hybrid pressure on Russia and its allies with a gradual increase in military pressure. It is these individual programs that are destructive and need to be analyzed, the expert notes.
In turn, Sergei Markov, political scientist, member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, believes that the problems of Russia and the West should be resolved through Ukraine. One does not have to talk about any influence on south-western Europe until Ukraine goes back to law and order.
The example of Bulgaria and Romania clearly shows that this kind of freedom means total transition to the control of the opponent as the countries demonstrate consistent anti-Russian policies.
A complex development is taking place in Moldova too, but Russia-friendly Greece and Cyprus do not even dare to block anti-Russian sanctions. As long as the regime in Ukraine remains Russophobic, this problem will continue to affect the entire region, Sergei Markov added.
In general, Russia needs to learn to act more rigidly. As long as the Russian authorities act calmly and moderately in international relations, Russian opponents see it as a manifestation of weakness. Therefore, the West will continue with its sanctions and attacks on Russia.
The West will be putting pressure on Russia in such weak points as the unrecognized republics, the Balkan states, military expert Sergei Gorbachev believes.
The Balkans are Bulgaria and Romania, which are NATO members. This is also the Moldavian Transdnietrian Republic, Karabakh, unrecognized republicans of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This attitude of the West is based on its specific plans for a future strike.
Vasily Dandykin, member of the "Officers of Russia" organization, believes that 2021 will be a difficult year for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The number of military exercises in the region will grow with Ukraine and Georgia taking an active participation in them.
Most likely, the situation will be tense, but not critical: if someone invades the Russian waters, Russia will show a decisive response, and all parties understand it very well.