What does the future hold for Armenia after it lost the war with Azerbaijan?

Armenia either goes with Russia or falls into abyss of national catastrophe

Why did the military victory parade in Azerbaijan take place? Was it an act of visualisation of success? What did Azerbaijan want to show? The internal political situation in Armenia remains extremely acute. The opposition is trying to remove Pashinyan from power, whom they see as a symbol of defeat. Why is he still in the office? What was the point of the military parade? Was it a declaration for the future?

It was most likely an act of symbolism, and it was not incidental. From the very beginning it was announced that Azerbaijan was waging a patriotic war, a war for the liberation of its territory. There was symbolism in that. As much as twenty percent of the territory of Azerbaijan had been under the control of Armenia for 30 years. The people of Azerbaijan obviously see the outcome of this war as a victory, because they see it as restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. And indeed it is.

Correcting mistakes of the past

Thus, with this military parade Azerbaijan put an end to almost 30 years of the national tragedy that took place in the history of this country. Armenia's victory in the early 1990s became possible, because there was no strong state power in Azerbaijan back then. The Popular Front of Azerbaijan came to power, which was guilty of failures at the front and territorial losses that Azerbaijan suffered.

The triumph of the victors

The parade became a historic milestone both for modern-day Azerbaijan and for the South Caucasus in general. Of course, Yerevan shares a completely different point of view on this topic. For Armenia and the Armenians, all this comes as a national tragedy, because no one there expected such an outcome. Many in Russia did not expect such an outcome either, because previous clashes did not end with anything serious. Yet, this time it goes about an act of real victory. Azerbaijan is living in a state of euphoria now! In this regard, the military parade put an end to 30 years of that violent conflict. Now we will see how the situation is going to develop in the future.

Of course, the state of affairs in Armenia is completely different, and the aftertaste is very bitter.  Pashinyan still remains in place, despite all the threats, a number of politicians have made quite harsh statements. Pashinyan makes harsh statements himself and calls on the nation to take different steps. Many people support him, although it would seem that after such a defeat he should resign.

Indeed, Pashinyan is a symbol of defeat. Moreover, Pashinyan signed a trilateral political agreement on Azerbaijan's terms. The main factor that keeps Pashinyan in the office is the position of the Armenian military, who did not stand up against him.

Pashinyan says that it was Armenian generals, the chiefs of the Armenian Defense Ministry, who offered him to cease the hostilities by signing this agreement. Therefore, it is not only him, who is accountable for the situation on the front - he shares this responsibility with the military leadership of Armenia.

Armenian Defense Minister, however, Tonoyan, has already been dismissed. A new defense minister was appointed - he earlier served as a military adviser to Pashinyan during the hostilities. The loyalty of the army and the national security service ensures a certain political stability to Pashinyan.

Of course, Yerevan had to go through several days of chaos. The crowd seized the government building and Pashinyan's residence, there were pogroms. During the days of bacchanalia and instability, Pashinyan was hiding in an underground bunker under the building of the Ministry of Defense. The Armenian military were were protecting Pashinyan.

Nevertheless, according to various estimates, 54-58 percent of the population of Armenia support Pashinyan, because the Armenian people expressed their claims to the former political administration. Pashinyan exposed a number of high-profile corruption cases. Therefore, the people of Armenia, despite the bitterness of defeat, support him, because they do not want corrupt figures to return to power in Armenia. In addition, Pashinyan enjoys the support of his party members - Pashinyan's faction has a constitutional majority. In Armenia, one can change power only by vote in the parliament.

Putin kept Pashinyan in place

Pashinyan's political stability, of course, appears to be an unexpected factor. Armenia no longer accepts multi-vectorism: Armenia either goes with Russia or falls in an abyss of national catastrophe. Putin publicly supported Pashinyan by saying that Pashinyan had to make a courageous, but a very tough decision to end the war by surrendering the territories that Armenia previously held. Putin thus made it clear that Russia would not insist on the immediate resignation of Pashinyan, which gave him a sense of solid ground underneath his feet.

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Author`s name Inna Novikova