The West will punish Russia for restoring peace in Nagorno-Karabakh

The West unhappy with Russia's successful strategy in the Caucasus

France and the United States recognized the unilateral actions taken by Russia to cease fire in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the West will try to weaken Armenia's "Russian-Turkish noose."

What is Turkey doing in Karabakh?

The ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh, signed by Moscow, Yerevan and Baku on November 10, ratified all territorial achievements of Azerbaijan (including the capture of Shusha, the second largest city of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic) and unblocked the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic within Azerbaijan, having thus established direct road corridor with Turkey.

A senior representative of the US State Department, following the talks between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, told TASS that France and the United States recognized Russia's unilateral actions to cease fire in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the parties would like to receive more information about the process of negotiations.

According to the State Department, the USA acknowledges that there are many issues that the Russians need to clarify, such as the details of the agreement, including the role of Turkey in it.

Pompeo said in an interview with Le Figaro that the OSCE Minsk Group should serve as a framework for action to resolve the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, he pointed out that the United States is "concerned about the growth of Turkey's military potential."

Three winners in the Karabakh conflict

Michel Marian wrote in the article headlined Karabakh as a Geopolitical Test (published in Liberation), the agreement identified three winners:

  • Azerbaijan, which, in addition to the reintegration of territories, indefinitely postpones the establishment of the Karabakh statute;
  • Russia, as a developer and guarantor of the agreement, which restores its military presence in Azerbaijan by deploying 2,000 troops on the ceasefire line;
  • Turkey, which receives a symbolic prize - the creation of a Russian-Turkish ceasefire observation center and also achieves a historical goal - the creation of a corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan.

The West has been taken out of the game

The author of the above-mentioned article believes that France and the United States, being the co-chairs of the Minsk Group for the settlement of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, are the losers. The Minsk Group is not even mentioned in the agreement, leaving Russia at the center of the game.

"To remove the West from the game was one of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's goals and a secret satisfaction for Vladimir Putin," the analyst wrote.

This explains France's cold reaction to the conclusion of the agreement, Michel Marian continued. The president and the foreign minister, while welcoming the ceasefire, insisted on the difference between a "truce" and "long-lasting peace," as well as on the need to study all the parameters of the treaty, both written and oral ones.

As for Armenia, the expert believes that the leadership of Armenia is going to change there soon - from the democratic to the authoritarian one. This too will be a failure for the West, and, naturally,  for Armenia.

According to Michel Marian, the Karabakh deal, which aims to weaken the West, is not going to be approved in the UN Security Council quickly. The author hopes for Joe Biden's "active diplomacy" in this matter.

The task is to weaken the "Russian-Turkish stranglehold" in relation to Armenia, which, according to Michel Mariana, is not going to happen overnight, similarly to the color revolution in Ukraine.  In addition to cultural and historical ties, Armenia depends on Russia in military and socio-economic terms. This dependence becomes even stronger as a result of the ceasefire, the author wrote.

For the agreement to be acceptable for approval at the UN, the West, in her opinion, needs to ensure symmetrical equality of the settlement in all cases:

  • the return or compensations for all refugees (both Armenian and Azeri ones);
  • lifting of all blockades, including the opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey;
  • initiation of the procedure for the investigation of all crimes committed during the conflict (since the first pogrom of Sumgait in 1988);
  • development of two-thirds of Karabakh that remain part of Armenia, which Azerbaijan is not yet in a position to dispute, Michel Mariana pointed out.

The West wants to violently confront Moscow with Ankara

Vladimir Avatkov, a Turkologist, told Pravda.Ru that the West, first of all, wants to be the victor, rather than the loser, without giving a chance to Russia and its military-strategic measures.

"First of all, the West is concerned about the strengthening of Russian positions in the South Caucasus. Russia has an army base in Armenia, and now Moscow has military presence in Azerbaijan," Vladimir Avatkov said.

The West wants to confront Moscow and Ankara in the Caucasus, the expert believes. The West is not satisfied with the fact that Russia and Turkey once again managed to avoid tough confrontation despite the real conflicts of interests.

There is another line of conflict in Europe-Turkey vector, where there is a conflict of interests in the Mediterranean with France showing support to Greece, against Turkey, the expert continued.

It is positive for Russia that Turkey, the United States and France continue to conflict with each other within the framework of NATO, concluded Vladimir Avatkov.

Subscribe to Pravda.Ru Telegram channel, Facebook, RSS!

Author`s name Lyuba Lulko