Author`s name Lyuba Lulko

Nagorno-Karabakh war puts an end to USA's influence in the Caucasus

The loss of the Turkey-UK-US alliance became the main outcome of the war that ended in Nagorno-Karabakh. The West lost an opportunity to show its influence on the crisis in the republic, and even Georgia noticed this.

The West takes offence at Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the agreement on the complete cessation of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh offended the West.

"I talked on the phone to my French counterpart yesterday, and my employees talked to American partners. We felt somewhere ... well, you know, something like an offense - how could it be that we were not told anything in detail," the minister said at a press conference on Thursday.

Lavrov clearly dotted all the i's: Turkey will not take part in the peacekeeping operation, but rather watch it from the territory of Azerbaijan. After that, the head of the British secret intelligence service, Richard Moore, arrived in Ankara.

Ankara and London lost the game in Transcaucasia

Turkologist Stanislav Tarasov believes that Richard Moore came to Turkey to state that the UK and Turkey have failed in their attempt to penetrate into the Caucasus. The expert believes that this happened primarily due to decisions and actions taken by President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, who turned to Russia while showing the important role of Turkey in the settlement of the conflict.

Aliyev does not want to be led by Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Instead, Aliyev would like to become become the center of the Turkic world himself, Stanislav Tarasov said on Vesti FM radio station.

In his opinion, this is the beginning of the formation of the Russian-Azerbaijani alliance in Transcaucasia, which will use Turkey in situational interests and show loyalty to Turkey without giving it room for maneuver. As far as Armenia is concerned, there are great changes in store for this country, the expert believes. First of all, the country will need to realise that it is only Russia that can guarantee its security in the region.

As Stanislav Tarasov noted, the success of the Russia-Azerbaijan axis was assessed in Georgia& The latter agreed to provide its airspace for a "certain period" for the transfer of Russian troops to Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili congratulated the conflicting parties, expressed gratitude to Russia for ending the war and announced "the onset of a new era in the Caucasus."

Noteworthy, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is arriving in Georgia on November 17. As one may assume, Pompeo is coming to Georgia to figure out what happened, why a loyal ally suddenly supported the "aggressor."

According to Georgian expert Archil Sikharulidze, Washington is "upset" with the agreement that Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed to end the war in Karabakh. The agreement also stipulates for the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zone, which seriously changes the balance of forces throughout the entire Transcaucasus in connection with the change of the status quo of Nagorno Karabakh.

Russia is the only guarantor of the security of the Caucasus

Leonid Krutakov, a political scientist, publicist, associate professor of the Financial University under the Government of Russia, told Pravda.Ru that the United States has lost all of its influence in the region as a result of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and this is the most important outcome of the conflict. For the time being, the USA retains its influence only in Georgia and along the route of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, Leonid Krutakov added.

The expert believes that Georgia will seriously think about the changed balance of forces in the Caucasus." Currently, it is the Astana troika (Russia, Iran, Turkey) that becomes the key player in the Middle East.

"We can see the Americans losing their zones of control and influence in Transcaucasia. It is 90 percent clear that neither Pashinyan nor other Washington's henchmen will remain in power in Armenia after the defeat in the Karabakh war," said Leonid Krutakov.

In his opinion, Aliyev has made his choice in Russia's favor - he perfectly understands that it is only Moscow that can be the only guarantor of peace in Karabakh:

  • Armenia will never accept Turkey as peacekeepers;
  • the Americans have no peacemaking experience in real military operations.

"Aliyev understood perfectly well that it is simply impossible to establish any power and political parity in the Transcaucasus without Russia's consent," said Leonid Krutakov.

Obviously, the region has a long way to go towards reconciliation, but there will no longer be bloodshed on this way.

"The agreements reached will create necessary conditions for a long-term and full-scale settlement of the crisis around Nagorno-Karabakh on a fair basis, as well as and in the interests of the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

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