Is a guarantee that there is no conspiracy against Ukraine between Germany, Poland and Russia? As a result of certain events going on in the country, the Crimean Peninsula would be handed over to the Russian Federation, the land that belonged to Poland before 1939 would be handed over to Warsaw, while Germany would take control of the west of Ukraine. These were the ideas expressed by retired colonel Alexander Musienko.
Alexander Musienko took part in combat actions in Afghanistan and Chechnya, events in Baku in 1990 and the civil war in Tajikistan in 1992-1993. He told Pravda.Ru that one could have avoided the civil war in Ukraine if the authorities had declared the state of emergency on time. "There would have been victims, 500, 1000, maybe even five thousand casualties. This would have been a terrible tragedy, but it would have prevented much greater sacrifices - dozens, maybe hundreds of thousands of people and the collapse of the state," said Musienko. According to him, the events in Kiev show that Ukraine has not been able to build a state machine in its new history, nor could it do that before, during the times of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, who had to seek assistance from the Russian tsar.
The spineless Ukrainian authorities had the spineless military, the expert said. They formed a generation of military leaders of low and medium level, who could not take responsibility for their actions. They can be prosecuted for executing orders, although it is the officials, who give orders that should be prosecuted.
"In Tajikistan, to restore constitutional order, we once formed a guerrilla movement. Was created the Popular Front of Tajikistan, and a year later, the government of Emomali Rakhmonov was brought to power - the constitutional order was established. In Azerbaijan, in 1990, the conflict was suppressed quickly, as soon as it started. With the help of KGB, special forces of the defense ministry, interior troops, strict order was established quick. A curfew was introduced, and opposition politicians were isolated."
Those were correct actions to make, the expert said, as people need law and order- they do not need chaos. Therefore, the task of any state is to prevent chaos at all costs. And what is happening in Ukraine?
"I was on the phone with Lvov five minutes ago. Ambulance crews do not work, unbridled masked militants walk around the city wielding batons and weapons. This is anarchy. Looting, robbery, rape - this is chaos, and people were left defenseless."
"The events in Egypt, Syria, Yugoslavia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and even in Russia on Bolotnaya Square - this is one and the same scenario, where identical technology is used," said the expert.
There is no counteraction to such technologies because of the amateurish approach of the administration. "Unfortunately, no one asked specialists who have the knowledge and experience," Musienko said. According to him, in November 1994, it was possible to avoid bloodshed in Grozny, Chechnya, after which the first Chechen war started. "If they had used the technology that was used in Tajikistan in 1992, the first Chechen war wouldn't have happened, let alone the second war," he said.
As for Ukraine, the Ukrainian coup was administered by well-trained people, who used, among other things, the crowd effect, when two or three instigators start to generate and maintain aggression. The less aggressive the other party answers, the more aggression they show.
What does Berkut do? On the contrary, Berkut provokes the crowd. They shoot rubber bullets at protesters, and real bullets fly back at them. If Berkut fighters had used military weapons against snipers, leaders and those, who shoot most, the events that we can now see in Ukraine wouldn't have happened," said Musienko.
The expert believes that Russia should intervene in the situation in Ukraine. "If the Americans intervene, if London intervenes, if Berlin intervenes, why Russia, having a common border with Ukraine, should not interfere? On the Russian side, this is not intervention - this is help. From the side of the West - this is nothing but intervention," the expert believes.
Musienko does not see anyone among opposition, with whom one could negotiate. "They are not responsible for the situation. They just flatter themselves with their ability to control everything. As a matter of fact, the situation in Ukraine is absolutely out of control."
"Human what-not on Maidan can not be controlled, and the crowd is on the offensive. The offensive position always wins. One can not win being in defense - let's face it. Unfortunately, many politicians and political scientists forget about it, and we can eventually see what we see. The militants who got to know the taste of blood are extremists. They will not listen to anyone, they can only careless about Yatsenyuk and Klitschko. They just do their shady business. They revel in anarchy, looting, violence, the possibility of taking people's lives," said the colonel. All this story with the European Union, in his opinion, is just an excuse to topple Yanukovych.
Musienko put forward a conspiracy theory about the events in Ukraine. Some believe that there was plan between Russia and Georgia for Georgia to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia will go to Russia. "But the Georgian artillery captain (Saakashvili) was not warned that one should not shoot at Russian peacekeepers. So there was a situation, when Russia deployed troops. Then, Sarkozy, who could contribute to the partition, became an umpire and reconciled Russia and Georgia."
"Where is a guarantee that there is no similar collusion about Ukraine? There is an opinion that as a result of political events in Ukraine the Crimea will go to Russia. The land that belonged to Poland before 1939 will be handed over back to Poland, and the western part of Ukraine will be given under the protectorate of Germany. Respectively, southern or eastern regions of Ukraine turn to Russia for help."
Musienko believes that the deployment of occupying or peacekeeping forces in Ukraine will cause only another round of escalation. "I believe that the deployment of German, Polish or Russian troops in Ukraine is absolutely out of the question. It would be a mistake, but maybe someone wants it. We understand that there is a backroom struggle, there are geopolitical agreements that define the role and place for every subject. But we can only guess about it," retired Colonel Musienko said.
Europe which is panic-stricken over the consequences of rising energy and food prices could strike a treacherous blow to Ukraine this winter, writes Simon Tisdall for The Guardian.