China will start a war, if it does not fall apart

First signs of a new information war against China were registered in Hong Kong, where the media traditionally, since the days of the British rule, tested various methods to undermine the ideological unity of China. Today, because of the special status, the local media is testing ideas that can be used by the internal Chinese opposition.

Almost simultaneously two papers with forecasts were published in Hong Kong. One article from Frontline magazine is dedicated to internal Chinese issues, while the other one published by the newspaper Wenweipo (it is described as close to the PRC authorities) in accordance with the rules of the information wars analyzes China's foreign policy.

Obviously, there is nothing good in store for the Communist China. The article in Frontline categorically stated that the Chinese Communist Party would collapse in three phases over the next three years, and its reign would end in 2016. First, in 2014 China's economy will fall, and in the next year the political structure of the Communist Party will be destroyed. Then, in 2016, the entire society will collapse, and the half-billion-strong country will fall into a political coma.

The reasons for the collapse are economical and associated with a significant outflow of capital from China. This deadly process, according to a U.S. expert, Professor Tian from a provincial University of South Carolina, will be exacerbated by the real estate market "bubbles," shadow banking system and huge debts of municipalities. This sounds exactly like the situation in the United States in 2008-2013.

The economic collapse based on political issues will be understandably blamed on the ruling Communist Party that admitted the existence of powerful corrupt groups that ignore the interests of the country and the nation and only focus on the accumulation of wealth. The author of the article is convinced that these groups are inclined to put an end to the Communist Party rather than to follow the reforms of Xi Jinping.

Is there a way out for the Chinese Communists? There is, tells the magazine. They can appeal to multinational corporations to send money back to China. Then for some time the Chinese yuan will be supported, provided that the public savings and assets will not be kept in a foreign currency.

It is clear that two most important points are being made. First, it is a demarcation of the internal enemy represented by the Chinese oligarchy, and the need to go cap in hand to multinational corporations usually controlled by U.S. citizens.

Generally, the scenario will be identical to the events in the Soviet Union of the late 1980s implemented almost literally over three years - 1988-1991. However, the Chinese have learned from the experience of the collapse of the Soviet Union and shot down this scenario in 1989, breaking up student demonstrations in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Yes, there were victims, but the country was plunged into cannibalistic experiments with a fake democracy, preserving the unity and national identity.

By improving the economy with the participation of private capital, the Chinese Communists opposed public corruption and the rule of oligarchy, unlike Yeltsin's Russia, with legislative and policy measures. For example, since 2000 10,000 officials were executed for corruption, and another 120,000 were sentenced to prison terms. Even considering the huge population of China these numbers are impressive.

Most importantly, the second in terms of size and first in terms of real material production Chinese economy is stable and provides no grounds for predicting a collapse. If for one reason or another the U.S. and the West close their markets for Chinese goods, as repeatedly stressed by the Chinese leaders, export flows will be redirected to meet the domestic demand.

In addition, over the past decade, the Chinese took control of the most of the markets of developing countries, including a completely undeveloped in this sense Africa and the Middle East. There is no need to persuade some mega-corporations to return the investments in the PRC. They will give away their last shirt just to ensure that China's economy does not collapse. Otherwise, the entire Western world will be hit by such a wave of crisis that in comparison the current recession would feel like a refreshing breeze.

But if forecasts of Hong Kong Frontline do not come true, and China will remain a stable and prosperous nation, the world will not benefit from it. According to the predictions of Wenweipo, China will organize six wars over the next 50 years. The reason would be the accession of the territories lost in previous years since the Opium War with Britain in 1840-1842. The defeat in that war resulted, according to the newspaper, in the centennial humiliation of China, which should be stopped.

A short list of these wars includes a unifying war with Taiwan in 2020-2025, and even if the U.S. and Japan intervene, China will win without doubts.

The next battle will be over the Spratly Islands with Vietnam, and possibly with the Philippines in 2025-2030. Then there will be a war with India for the return of Southern Tibet in 2035-2040. Next there will be Japan and the return of the Senkaku Islands and the Ryukyu Islands (2040-2045), followed by unification of Outer Mongolia (now MHP) in 2045-2050. And, finally, a war with Russia that since the time of the "Old China" occupied 1.6 million square kilometers of land and consequently, by the definition of the newspaper, is the worst enemy of China who after winning the previous five wars must be forced to pay.

It should be emphasized that this was published in a rather serious paper. It cannot and should not be refuted. Any military analyst knows that China, with all due respect to its armed forces, will be defeated in the first war over Taiwan. The U.S., NATO and Japan are many times stronger than the PRC in all respects. In addition, under the current communist regime this path of the historical development is not realistic. The Chinese Constitution adopted a defensive doctrine that rejects the principle of the first attack, and provides for the appropriate structure of the armed forces.
What was the reason behind publishing this unscientific fiction? It was done in order to give direction to the ideological work of the internal opposition groups closely associated with private capital and corrupt government officials in the event of the collapse of the Communist Party.

A "Color" revolution in China is impossible, but it should be prepared - I am positive that the originators of this and other similar publications are guided by this logic. In the case of the military saga there is a similar task - to heat concerns of China's neighbors by the alleged claims to certain lands, forcing them to limit the economic cooperation and prevent the penetration of China's domestic markets. At the same time appropriations for the purchase of weapons will be increased. It is noteworthy that nowhere in the forecast a war with the U.S. is mentioned. The latter is only referenced as a source of financial aid to China's enemies.

Obviously, one of the main objectives is to drive a wedge between Russia and China, because the union of Russian nuclear technology and Chinese defense and human capacity is able to stop and defeat any aggressor. The same goal was set by the U.S. intelligence community judging by the forecast of the CIA published earlier this year.

It is clear that the two publications will not affect the political climate. However, they are interesting because these topics are covered by the media in such a detailed and open manner for the first time. Therefore, it can be concluded that in the future these theses will be developed and expanded in a number of other media outlets in line with the principles of the organization of information warfare  where the CIA has a great deal of experience.

Yuri Skidanov


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Author`s name Dmitry Sudakov