Britain and EU agree like dog and cat

The UK still can not regulate its relations with the EU. Conflicts spark between London and Brussels on a regular basis. This time, Britain and the European Union clashed because of the draft budget of the European Union for 2014-2020. The European Commission proposes to raise the fees to the budget, but Britain opposes the initiative by all means.

Obviously, the membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union can not be called exemplary. The relationship between London and Brussels can not be referred to as smooth and constructive either. It is not ruled out that in the United Kingdom may soon cease to be a member of the European Union. As British Prime Minister David Cameron has recently noted in one of his speeches, the EU has been and will be one of the largest economic partners of the United Kingdom, however, he added, British business will not be solving the problems of the European economy.

The EU commission proposed to increase contributions to the budget, but many members of the European Union, being frightened with the economic crisis, on the contrary, offered to reduce the size of the budget.

The UK government has also voted for real settlement of member fees. Interestingly, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is pretty optimistic. According to him, the weakening of trade relations with the EU does not pose a special problem for the kingdom. The UK Confederation of Industry offers to pay attention to new export markets. Spokespeople for the National Statistics committee said that economic indicators of the country were improving. In August, the trade deficit of the UK was about 4.3 billion pounds, and in September, the figure dropped to 2.7 billion.

Many international analysts do not exclude a possibility for the UK to pull out from the EU. There is heated debate at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels on whether to pass the seven-year budget of the organization without the participation of the UK. The matter is about the fact that the United Kingdom government seriously intends to veto the draft budget.

The issue has not been resolved yet: the final decision will be taken at the EU summit in the near future. Anyway, EU members are not willing to pass the new budget without the UK - such a move may trigger serious consequences for both sides, given the fact that the current relations between the United Kingdom and Brussels leave much to be desired.

The European Union intends to increase the size of the budget. As British Prime Minister David Cameron previously stated in one of his speeches, if the EU members do not leave the draft budget the way it was before, Britain will veto its adoption. A little later, the House of Commons of the United Kingdom voted to reduce the size of the budget, while the EU tries to increase the size of national contributions. The state of affairs may lead to Britain's removal from the founding members of the project, and then, possibly, from the European Union.

According to the Financial Times, officials discuss the situation, and London's exclusion from the ranks of EU is very likely. Some analysts go even further. They say that the UK government blackmails the members of the Union with a possibility to pull out from the organization.

What could be the consequence of Britain's withdrawal from the EU? In October of this year, the British Prime Minister said that it was about time to decide whether Great Britain was going to stay in the European Union or not. According to him, there was a need to hold a national referendum that would ultimately decide Britain's position.

Interestingly, it was earlier reported that the decision on the referendum did not find support among British citizens. However, according to polls, more than 80 percent of the population of the country is already willing to participate in the referendum. As noted by David Cameron, the European Union was going on one path of development, while the United Kingdom was on another one, so the UK membership was no more necessary either for the country or for the EU.

It is worthy of note that the economic situation of the Union and of the United Kingdom differs considerably now.  While the majority of European countries hopelessly try to reverse the effects of the financial crisis, the British economy begins to stabilize, slowly but surely. According to world analysts, the UK will not lose too much, even if it stops being a member of the European Union. When one part of Europe tries to stabilize the economies of another part of Europe, the United Kingdom, actually as always, defends only its own interests, quite successfully.

Yaroslav Kabakov, the rector of Finam training center said that the UK and the European Union are two different financial areas that solve their problems differently. Of course, the methods that the EU administration is trying to impose may not be suitable for the UK.

However, not all experts are so optimistic. For example, an analyst with Investkafe, Andrei Sakharov, in one of his speeches said that the current economic and political developments in Europe are interconnected so strongly that a pullout of one member from the European Union will not pass without negative consequences. If London does decide to leave the ranks of the EU, Britain will face the loss of many large investors. In addition, a pullout from the EU implies the termination of business relations with more than 50 countries around the world, which, of course will affect the position of the country on the whole.

It should be noted that more than a half of the residents of the country are opposed to Britain's exit from the EU.

If the British government decides not to leave the EU, the country will have to adjust to the requirements of the EU. Thus, Britain will be obliged to seek compromise on monetary integration, mutual help, etc. World analysts are skeptical towards the independence of the United Kingdom. In their view, the modern world is forming major political and economic centers. The United States in the Atlantic, China in the East and the European Union in Europe. The current political situation means that in the future the countries that do not play the role of world's major strongholds, will exist only as national authorities. The United Kingdom, if it pulls out from the EU, will see the same fate, no matter how strong the power could be.

Sergei Vasilenko


Read the original in Russian 

Author`s name Dmitry Sudakov