Nuclear war to break out in South Asia

The danger of a nuclear war in the world will remain even if Russia and the United States agree to reduce their strategic offensive arms. Asia’s nuclear powers - India and Pakistan – do not intend to follow the example of the two superpowers. The ongoing standoff in South Asia may lead to catastrophic consequences for the whole world.

The conflict between India and Pakistan lasts for over 60 years already. Their confrontation became especially dangerous after 1998, when both India and Pakistan conducted a series of nuclear tests and showed the world their ability to build nuclear weapons.

India has never concealed an intention to possess nuclear weapons. The nuclear doctrine was approved in the nation in 2001. It is worthy of note that India never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Indian government believes that it has a full right to possess nuclear arms just like Russia, the USA, China, France and Great Britain.

In accordance with the nuclear doctrine, India ’s nuclear arsenal will have the air, the ground and the sea constituents. The country’s Air Force already has nuclear-capable Mirage-2000, MiG-27 and Jaguar aircraft. It also has ground-based ballistic missiles. India does not have nuclear submarines yet, but it may become a reality very soon.

Pakistan is India’s primary potential enemy. China can also be a threat to one of Asia’s largest nations. The Indian nuclear program of the 1960s was a response to its own defeat, which the nation suffered as a result of the border war with China in 1962.

Several dozens of nuclear warheads will be enough for India to contain Pakistan. Even if Pakistan launches a massive attack against India’s vast territory, it will be impossible to destroy most of the Indian strategic nuclear arms. Quite on the contrary: India’s nuclear retaliation with the use of 15-20 nukes will cause much bigger damage to Pakistan, which is a lot smaller in size.

India has 115 nukes at the moment. About 80 warheads will be enough to destroy Pakistan entirely. However, India will not be able to attack China afterwards. The latter has 410 nuclear warheads. Therefore, India will most likely try to enlarge its nuclear potential.

Unlike India, Pakistan does not have its nuclear doctrine officially documented. There is not enough information about the details and the structure of the nuclear forces of this country either. Official spokesmen for the Pakistani authorities say that the development of the nation’s nuclear forces will fully depend on the actions of the Indian government.

Pakistan possesses nuclear arms as a nuclear deterrent against a possible attack from India. In addition, Pakistan aims to reduce India’s predominance in other arms. Pakistan has all chances to build 40-45 nuclear warheads. The country has ballistic missiles too.

A nuclear blow in South Asia can result in a global catastrophe. The population of India and Pakistan totals over one billion people. The two countries do not have any means of protection against a nuclear attack. Even a minor nuclear explosion will kill millions of people and trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.

Vladimir Anokhin

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Author`s name Dmitry Sudakov