US intelligence lives in the world of illusions

If the report about global changes in the world had been written by a group of scientists and published by political analysts, it would have become something unimportant. Everything would seem to be obvious in the report and it would have no ground-breaking statements that could change the world. However, when it is the US intelligence community that pens a text about trivial and obvious trends, everything is portrayed to become a sensational discovery. The US intelligence seems to be living in the world of illusions. Our congratulations to the new president on having such assistants.

The US National Intelligence Council (NIC), the body that is responsible for short-term and long-term strategic planning, prepared a report titled “Global Trends 2025.” The council makes such reports to the US administration once in five years.

The reports remind US administration what may happen in the world if it does not run certain policies. The main goal of the latest report is to inform President-elect Barack Obama of the factors that will affect world affairs in the future. The document particularly warns Obama of the risks which may appear in the transition to the new system during the forthcoming 20 years.

Thomas Fingar, the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, believes that there is an opportunity to avoid the harmful consequences of the transition period. Fingar believes that the USA may have a better world at its disposal by 2025 if the US administration pays attention to those problems and takes certain efforts to solve them.

It is worthy of note that these “Global Trends” reports from NIC are known for their mistakes. In “Trends 2010,” “Trends 2015” and “Trends 2020” intelligence experts predicted something absolutely contrary to their current points of view. They particularly envisaged an increasing role of the European Union and the stable growth of Western economies on the level of approximately 2 percent a year. It is supposed to happen in 2010.

The NIC has to do a very ungrateful job. It is supposed to coordinate and summarize analytical materials from all intelligence centers of the United States – the CIA, the political intelligence of the State Department, the army intelligence, the navy intelligence, the Treasury intelligence, etc. The report says that the USA will continue to lose its international influence in the world during the first quarter of the current century. It will keep its superpower status although the erstwhile predominance will be lost. The same fate is in store for the US dollar.

The report said that the current financial crisis is only the first stage of the changing global world order. The role of the US dollar as the fundamental global currency will reduce. Brazil, India and China will fill the gap that the USA will make for them. The three countries may even take measures to join their efforts. Analysts wrote that Russia, India and China hold best chances to become world’s most influential superpowers by 2025.

The multipolar world will emerge, and the Western models of economic liberalism and democracy will lose their appeal entirely. The European Union will also lose its influence. Europe will not be able to overcome its energy dependence by 2025. About 57 percent of global gas reserves in 2025 will be concentrated in Russia, Iraq and Qatar.

Many current oil makers will lose their current positions too. Six countries will control almost 40 percent of the global oil output: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Iraq.

The report pays special attention to the danger of the nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Iran’s decisions regarding its nuclear program may push several regional powers to taking more efforts on the way to building their own nukes. More importantly, the appearance of nuclear arms in the Middle East will not result in the establishment of the containment system, similar to that during the Cold War era. Quite on the contrary, the nukes will let the countries of the region continue their military and terrorist operations with the use of conventional arms.

A possible use of nuclear weapons during the upcoming 15 or 20 years will strike a severe blow on the international system, and the world will immediately face enormous humanitarian, economic and political consequences, the authors of the report wrote. A nuclear threat may lead to serious geopolitical changes when non-nuclear countries will be forced to ally with nuclear powers.

The “Global Trends 2025” report shows that the United States is losing its international role and proves to be unable to build normal relations with other countries. In general, the USA cannot find its place in the changing world.

Vladimir Anokhin

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Author`s name Dmitry Sudakov