Fight for oil

Global oil partition is on the rise. There is nothing left to share.

Nobody, aside from specialists, treats the news of drastically decreasing oil supplies seriously. There prevails a notion that today's oil supply will be enough for our generation. However, the fact that oil supplies are running low and that society is fiercely fighting to preserve the “black gold” appears to be rather obvious.

Famous Swiss energy expert, senator Rudolf Reksteiner comments that forecasts regarding growing oil prices are in fact being greatly understated. In reality, in a not so distant future, oil prices could reach $60-70 USD per barrel. Before the holidays, oil prices at New York stock exchange reached record high--$39,97 USD per barrel. According to experts, even when Hussein’s army invaded Kuwait oil has not been as expensive.

“Majority of analysts use incorrect method in their calculations,” stated Rudolf Reksteiner to Tagblatt. “They overestimate capacities of existing oilfields and then are caught by surprise when those oilfields suddenly run dry.” In reality, they simply do not want to see the problem and prefer to paint a completely different picture in their minds.

The Swiss expert is certain that oil prices will continue to grow and the process is inevitable. At the same time, the need for hydrocarbon fuel is increasing. It is noteworthy to mention that China and India today have joined the rest of the developed countries and are willing to pay almost any price for the “black gold”.

Rudolf Reksteiner presents widely known but often forgettable data. For instance, oil export from the North sea will be reduced in half; oil supplies are practically totally exhausted there. Export of Mexican oil is also in decline. Whatever is left, goes right to the neighboring US.

In addition, states the Swiss expert, a number of counties-oil exporters tend to decrease as well. Indonesia, for instance, stops its oil export till next year; the country will be using its oil for internal purposes. Great Britain, which has also been considered an oil exporter, had to import oil and gas for the first time last year. China, which used to export oil ten years ago, has become the world’s second importer. There are no reasons for oil prices to go down. Such is the verdict of the expert.

According to him, there are only a few regions left in the world, where oil export can in fact prosper. There are the regions of West Africa and Central Asia. Saudi Arabia however, is questionable, remarks Rudolf Reksteiner.

Russia also shows potential. However, notes the expert, Russia has already reached its peak in oil production. It is also noteworthy to mention that major oil funds are worn out and are in critical condition; soviet oil pipes and oil-loading terminals are in need of repairs. However, due to the current money deficit such repair works are impossible. Nonetheless, Russian oil appears to have most promising future of all mentioned earlier. First of all, this is because it has already been explored. Second of all, it can be acquired for relatively cheap.

In actuality, partition of Russian oil has already begun. It was no accident that Mikhail Khodorkovsjy had to pay his price for his talks with American oil tycoons and for lobbying the Angarsk-Datsin oil pipeline project at intergovernmental level. Today, apparently, Japan has its hands on oil that the former head of “Yukos” intended to sell to China.

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Author`s name Andrey Mikhailov