A Rump State

Slowly but surely, the military situation for the Ukrainians is deteriorating day by day. The Western Wunderwaffen have proved to be a failure at the test of real war; economic sanctions against Russia hurt the West more than the target for which they were originally designed well in advance; Russian social cohesion has proven stronger than the collective West expected, as it watched the Russian world from the heights of its rainbow think tanks.

Photo: web.archive.org by pcwiles, CC BY 3.0

This declining West of ours lacks adults in the room. We should not be surprised: those who are willing to fight "to the last Ukrainian” are the same people who tortured Syria with a decade of civil war injected from outside; who destroyed Gaddafi's prosperous Libya; who tormented Greece with economic austerity, proving to everyone that fine words about a peoples' Europe count for nothing when the greed of banks and investment funds is involved.

They are the same people who defend Israel for its extermination of Palestinians, invoking Deuteronomy.

However, for the time being we can still write and speak, and there are still voices, perhaps isolated, that rise up forcefully against the daily madness in which we are immersed.

The voice of Richard Black, Marine colonel, Purple Heart in Vietnam and former senator in the Virginia state senate, is one of them. As at other times, the truth he speaks may sound unpleasant to the ears of those who are blind to reality.

The following is his most recent statement on the Ukrainian situation along the front line.

A dramatic breakthrough has shaken the front lines in Ukraine. It is too early to tell how significant that break might become, but sooner or later, this is how the Ukraine War is likely to end.

At some point, the line will break; Ukraine will lack reserves to shore up the breach; the Russians will have ample reserves to exploit the break, and they will pour through, forcing a substantial retreat, which will unravel Ukraine's other defenses, and their lines will collapse across a wide front. If that collapse is sufficiently large, it may spell the end for Ukraine.

Could this be happening now? A week ago, an unexplained anomaly appeared on the war maps--an unusual, three-mile Russian thrust through Ukrainian lines--a deep, sudden penetration that was very narrow, mostly consisting of an unimpeded Russian dash along the road leading to Ocheretyne. At the time, that town was a Ukrainian stronghold northwest of Avdiivka, which had been the scene of a major Russian victory in February of 2024.

The penetration looked narrow and perilous. The Russians risked being cut off, for even a small force could interdict the road at any location. But over the next few days, the penetration grew rapidly wider, and the Russian advance began darting out in other directions. The expanding salient undermined the defenses of nearby Ukrainian units.

And now, there are reports of a string of villages falling to Russia: Semenovka, described as "one of the main Ukrainian strongholds west of Avdeevka” was captured by Russian forces, and the Ukraine command announced that it had withdrawn from Berdychy and Novomikhailovka too. Several other towns are being contested and may fall to Russia as well.

For now, there is no sign that the breakthrough is contained. Whenever Ukraine transfers troops to seal the breach, it creates a new weak spot in its defenses. Their problem is not munitions, it is manpower. It seems a question of time before their luck runs out.

The Battle for Ocheretyne started when Ukraine ordered the 47th Brigade to withdraw, taking its American-built M-1 tanks off the line. The highly touted M-1s proved embarrassingly easy to defeat with ordinary Russian drones. The rapid destruction of tanks once considered invincible was a bad look for NATO; they had to leave.

But the 115th Brigade's relief of the 47th was badly bungled. Ukrainians simply abandoned many positions, leaving gaps in the line. Russians detecting the gap, surged through boldly and decisively.

Their swift action allowed them to seize major parts of the fortress town of Ocheretyne, exposing other new avenues of attack. The Ukrainian high command was thrown into panic. They ordered the 47th to reverse its withdrawal and rejoin the battle. Poorly equipped forces were cobbled together to help seal the breach.

The Russians are piling on, enlarging the gap. They have sent fresh, well-trained reserves and established supply routes for fuel, food, and munitions.

Ukrainian observers were furious, demanding action against whoever blundered, though it is unclear who that may be. A Ukrainian analyst using the name "DeepState” blames the commander of the 115th Brigade. DeepState reports heavy Ukrainian losses, saying, everything worked smoothly under the previous brigade, "then the 115th came in and some incomprehensible maneuvers on the part of the enemy began and the front line collapsed”. He said that many social media reports spoke of "a lot of missing and dead soldiers of the 115th Brigade”.

For now, there are conflicting reports over who controls what, but the Russian flag flies over Ocheretyne today.

War observers have become increasingly convinced that Ukraine will fall in the coming months. Across the 620-mile front, Ukraine's forces are yielding ground for lack of manpower. Zelensky's attempt to mobilize a half million fresh troops has met strong resistance; It is proceeding slowly.

Meanwhile, the Biden White House struggles to keep Kiev afloat until the November presidential election. They've floated a new 10-year financial and military aid package, obligating American taxpayers to spend up to another trillion dollars, while leaving America's citizens uncared for, its borders unprotected.

It seems unlikely that Ukraine can last until November, however. If the collapse does occur, Russia would absorb East Ukraine, and Poland would probably advance to take West Ukraine, asserting its historic claims to the region. What remains of Ukraine may become little more than a war-torn, depopulated rump state.

If that happens, Biden will be hard pressed to explain why he blocked a nearly completed peace agreement that could have ended the war just months after it began--without sending an entire generation of Ukrainians to their graves.

This is the opinion of former Senator Black, who demonstrates, as always, more common sense than many other Western politicians.

Richard Black defended Syria and its people when all the Western media were prostituting themselves in spreading falsehoods to justify a new NATO intervention like the one in Libya. Richard Black took risks himself, enduring attacks from his fellow party members, defending Syria and its people at the bloodiest moment in its recent history.

A patriot, a soldier who knows war well from having experienced it first-hand in Vietnam, Richard Black's political career could have been longer and… prosperous. But Colonel Black chose differently, for Ukraine now as for Syria years ago.