NATO Article 5 — Fiction & Fantasy Scenarios

There are two things abjectly ridiculous about the 1984 film Red Dawn, in which Russians paratroop their way into the United States as an occupying force:

  • The first is there is essentially no way a country of 150 million could effectively occupy a country of 300 million and maintain its own domestic economy.
  • The second is we literally ALL believed this script was absolutely possible back in the day.

Yes, your humble correspondent included. What can he say? It was a different time.

Which is the reason when one hears various NATO Article 5 scenarios that "An Attack on One Is an Attack on All” from contemporary fools, such as this author admittedly once was, it is essential that those of us with experience elucidate the irrationality of such fiction and fantasy.

Facts About Article 5

1. Article 5…Activate! — As soon as one enemy soldier (assuredly dem ebil Ruskies) sets foot on NATO soil a Red Button is pushed whereupon the Arsenal of Democracy (AKA barrages of Nuclear Weapons) are fired and the world ends in a haze of ruined cities, charred corpses and smoldering rubble.

Er, um, actually…no. — In the unlikely but not impossible event there is a minor incursion upon NATO soil no proverbial Red Button is pushed to end humanity as we know it. In truth…there is…a meeting. Everyone gets on a conference call (or modern equivalent) and discusses the severity of the matter, whether the violation was intentional, and what should be the appropriate response.

2. Article 5 Prior Implementation — *spoken in a hushed tone* We have never been forced to use Article 5 in the past which means doing so today is the most extreme reaction possible and would necessarily entail a full military countermeasure since it's either everything or nothing concerning the use of lethal force.

No. Article 5 was engaged following September 11, 2001, although what practical effect this had on anything is dubious at best. Some other times we all conclaved and determined not to do squat was the "Skripal Poisoning” in the United Kingdom, the case of a couple alleged spooks running around the Baltic States and a few other similar situations in which no one could adequately justify getting their panties tied in a bunch over mundane spycraft.

3. Article 5 is Determinative of Maximum Military Mobilization — Once the treaty gets invoked there is nothing to do but redirect every aircraft carrier toward Europe, rouse all those American troops from innumerable Berlin brothels, and start passing out rifles en masse. It would be a pivotal moment which involved every Jack and Jill (as well as Tranny Wacko Jacko) wearing a uniform!

Wrong again, Sportsfans. While the "defence of everybody” aspect of the treaty is genuine, it is essential to note there is no specification about what that defence entails. It could be the whole shebang as seen in every dystopian Drive-In double-feature circa-1957…or it could be the international equivalent of sending moral support. There is nothing which states the entire army or even a portion of it is ensured to show up at the scene of the supposed crime.

American Legislation — Only For Americans

While not typically the wont of this author to forbid anyone to speak on any topic, it is about time a moratorium be placed on "Experts” from "Think Tanks” located in Europe who speak on American legislation.

Technically it is accurate to state, and these Educated Idiots frequently do, that the United States Congress passed a law instructing no President could unilaterally remove our nation from NATO…except it is a law generally considered in violation of usual powers if not The Constitution.

The President is traditionally denoted as having broad authority to enter AND LEAVE treaties.

Merely because the Congress passed a law of this type which has not been challenged in court does not of necessity indicate that law is valid — it simply has not been tested (an exam it would likely FAIL) because there is no reason to do so at this time.

Which is not to say a future President might not be forbidden to exit NATO…you would just need a Constitutional Amendment to that effect…requiring enormous hurdles lasting several years if not the better part of a decade.

So if one is a "Think Tank Expert” please do yourself a favor and read the American Constitution before you go spouting off on a subject you clearly either do not understand or are intentionally lying about for your own partisan political purposes…or to cash your fat "professional liar” paycheck.

Defunding Defence — Always an Option

Even with all the caveats above…the less-than-certain implications of any Article 5 breach…the legality any President has the precedent authority to leave ANY treaty…there is the political reality of the "Slow Roll”.

This is a maneuver by which administrations do what is theoretically required in practically contrary manners.

Currently we see this on the southern demarcation with Mexico where the "Border Control” officers sometimes thwart the Mass Illegal Invasion but more often than not serve to facilitate it.

Smugly McSenile can then claim he is following the law in practice while violating it in principle.

How would this affect NATO? Well, drawing down troops in Europe would be one way. American soldiers cannot fight where they do not physically exist. Another way? Sending the United States Navy to assist by transiting to Europe in reverse, across the Pacific; thereby wasting months.

Any administration determined to deter, delay and dismay the forces of those who seek more war could do so quite easily.

Credit Where Credits are Due

The truth about Red Dawn (original version ONLY)? It's a fun movie in a very stupid sort of way and the scene where dem ebil Ruskies shoot the friendly school teacher — while terrifying in 1984 America — is hilarious in the 2024 United States.

Our filmmakers relied on the fact very few Americans in those days were acquainted with actual Russians.

The truth about NATO Article 5? It's not nearly so cut and dry as many believe.

Much like the scaremongering of a bygone era, your ignorance is exactly what the War Party is depending on.

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Red Dawn trailer
Author`s name Guy Somerset
Editor Dmitry Sudakov