The world after Russia's special operation in former Ukraine: A forecast

How the world order is going to change after the special operation in Ukraine

Our forecasts are as follows.

Ukraine will either re-unite with a reasonable government and return to the brotherhood of the Slavic peoples, or it is the Russian-speaking regions of the country that will unite, while the western territories (they are in the minority) will create their own republics (or will be annexed by Poland and Hungary). Russia has no intention to incorporate the territory of the former Ukraine.

The European Union is now facing the most difficult choice since its foundation. On the one hand, the EU will have to try to cope with the food crisis already in autumn of this year. On the other hand, it will have to solve issues of energy supplies. Both of these topics have become subject to sanctions (if not yet, they will some time soon).

Old World citizens will be opposed to assisting the former countries of the Warsaw Bloc. In some countries of the former socialist camp, voices will be heard about the injustice of quotas for growing agricultural products. In Bulgarian food stores, for example, one can already find bell peppers, tomatoes and cucumbers from Germany.

In the United States, rising energy prices will push food prices up too. The Democratic Party may fail the elections in autumn. Biden may find himself in Donald Trump's shoes. This may draw near the time when Democrats leave the political arena. In another option, they will be forced to enjoy a minority for the next 10-15 years.

The entire world order has turned upside down after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine. The world order is changing rapidly, and it is up to every nation to determine its own place in the new political arena.

It is worthy of note here that the economic crisis, which has been gathering pace in the United States, will no longer let the US administration control the countries of Europe. The US administration will lose its ability to bribe European elites and bring them to power, where desired.

Russian oligarchs, whose financial assets have been arrested in Europe and the US, will redirect investments either to Russia or Asian markets, as they will no longer have confidence in Western financial organizations.

Russia will be left to deal with import substitution issues. Geographically, Russia is located in Eurasia, not only in Europe, so the country will be able to reorient its economy towards cooperation with Asian states while developing its economic sovereignty at the same time.

We do not know whether these forecasts are going to come true or not. There are many trends indicating that they have every chance to materialize.

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Author`s name Pyotr Yermilin