Ukraine Seeks Guarantees on Odessa as Russia Returns Istanbul Terms to the Table

In the capital of the United Arab Emirates, negotiators are discussing conditions that could reshape the map of Eastern Europe. While Volodymyr Zelensky focuses on protecting Odessa, Sergey Lavrov has returned the 2022 Istanbul theses to the negotiating table.

Photo: commons.wikimedia.org by Nata Naval, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

House of trade Unions in Odessa

Zelensky Warns of Possible Russian Operation in Odessa

Western media, citing US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Volodymyr Zelensky, and other officials, have tried to convince audiences that only "one key issue” remains in peace talks on Ukraine — territory. According to this narrative, Russia allegedly demands the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas, while remaining territories in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions could be divided under a Korean-style scenario along the line of contact.

However, Zelensky later stated that Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remains unacceptable to Kyiv. He insisted that Russian troops must withdraw from Enerhodar before any discussion of the plant's operation can begin.

Odessa then emerged as a third "key issue.” A source cited by TASS at the Abu Dhabi talks said on February 6 that Ukraine demands guarantees that Russian forces will not attempt to seize Odessa.

"For Kyiv, this is a critically important issue. Within the broader package, Ukraine needs guarantees that Russia will not move toward Odessa. There must be a mechanism that secures such commitments,” the source said.

The source did not specify what guarantees Kyiv seeks, but the demand itself reflects the situation on the ground and increasingly pessimistic sentiment within Ukraine's leadership.

At the same time, broader security guarantees proposed by Kyiv in coordination with Western partners have become public. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said these include the deployment of contingents from "willing” countries immediately after a ceasefire, the creation of monitoring facilities, and the establishment of military hubs inside Ukraine to service equipment.

Russia Demands De Jure Recognition of New Territories

This approach remains unacceptable to Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly warned that such facilities would qualify as legitimate military targets and would constitute foreign intervention.

In an early February interview with RT, Sergey Lavrov called current Western proposals for resolving the conflict "absurd.” He stressed that Russia will reject any agreement that ignores realities on the ground and the rights of Russian-speaking populations.

As a result, Kyiv's claims regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant face rejection, while Russia maintains its demand for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas. Moscow also insists on restoring the Russian language as an official language, ending persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and rehabilitating affected clergy.

Lavrov noted that a genuine peace agreement that ensures Russia's security would effectively mark "the end of Volodymyr Zelensky's political career.” His remarks suggest that Moscow views Zelensky's departure, likely through elections, as a necessary condition and hopes to see a more loyal figure come to power.

Lavrov again proposed using the 2022 Istanbul draft agreement as the foundation for negotiations. Under that framework, Russia would become one of Ukraine's guarantor states. Because the mechanism required consensus among all guarantors, it would grant Russia veto power over any international actions taken "to protect” Ukraine.

Additional information indicates that Russia demands international de jure recognition of the territories transferred under any agreement by all participating states. Zelensky has stated that Ukraine will never accept such terms.