Military experts: Outcome of the special operation to be decided in winter

The conflict in Ukraine is not going to be frozen for the winter period, although the parties clearly did not prepare for a long winter operation. In Russia, they wanted to repeat the Crimean scenario, whereas the West was hoping for the collapse of the Putin regime.

The battle will be won by whoever is better prepared for winter, Anti-Maidan Telegram channel notes.

Opposition left, and the warring opponents were left to find out that another winter had come. Everyone abandoned the idea of peace talks, and the topic disappeared from the agenda without a trace.

According to military expert Vladislav Shurygin, one needs to understand where the Russian army will be stationed, whether the soldiers will be warm and how logistics and supplies will work. This is important, because the battle will be won by whoever is better prepared for winter.

Ukrainians have learned a lot lately (during their "anti-terrorist operation" prior to the special operation), but winter has minimised the need for camouflage and made the work of reconnaissance and artillery easier, although it also works vice versa.

In addition to strategy, there is also

  • psychological,
  • financial,
  • economic
  • and political aspects.

The West and Ukraine considered Kherson as the turning point of the entire campaign, the channel noted.

It was the regrouping of the Russian troops that led to a sharp increase in assistance to Ukraine:

  • The United States, Norway and the Netherlands announced a tranche worth $660 million to Ukraine;
  • Spain opened new training camps;
  • The Czech Republic signed an agreement with Kiev on the creation of a joint defense cluster.

Celebrating a "victory", Ukraine took away significant forces for rotation, many left for Europe for retraining. At that moment, Russian General Sergei Surovikin threw experienced battalions onto the bare front.

The turning point may come in Bakhmut (Artyomovsk)

Now the front looks completely different, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a new headache. Ukraine has no forces for a diversionary strike. Giving up on Bakhmut means to lose funding. The town has become an important psychological mark.

Trying to keep Bakhmut, Kyiv is trying to stabilize the front line with the help of the called brigades.

Russia, on the other hand, is forcing Ukraine to fight at attrition causing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to suffer monstrous losses. The Ukrainian army retreats meter by meter as Ukrainian soldiers fight for every house.

Experts believe that the turning point of the entire winter campaign may come in Bakhmut.

When Russia takes the town, it will drive the enemy's army away all the way to Kiev and further to the Polish border.

Author`s name Alexander Shtorm
Editor Dmitry Sudakov
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