In 2011, the growth of the Russian economy will make up 4.8 percent. The inflation rate in the country will reach eight percent, a report from the International Monetary Fund said. Russia shows good results from the point of view nearest prospects. However, the global factors, such as the demographic situation, the dependence on natural resources and the business climate are the key problems, the report said.
According to the IMF, Russia's GDP will make up 4.8 percent (4.5% - in 2012). IMF's executive director for the Russian Federation, Aleksei Mozhin, said that the above-mentioned data were already outdated because they referred to the period when the report was being made. According to specified information, the growth in 2011 and 2012 is supposed to reach 4.3 and 4.1 percent of the GDP respectively. The inflation rate by the end of the current year is not supposed to exceed the level of 7.5 percent.
As for the growth of the GDP, the situation looks better than in the recent Russian forecasts, whereas the inflation rate looks worse. According to most recent information from Russia's Ministry for Economic Development, the economic growth in 2011 is expected to reach 4.1 percent. As for the inflation rate, the level is expected to be within the limits of 6.5-7.0 percent.
The majority of IMF directors supported the toughening of the monetary policy and the reduction of the inflation rate to 3-5 percent.
The authors of the report believe that Russia needs to run fundamental budget reforms, including the reforms of pensions, social protection and healthcare.
According to the IMF, banks continue to suffer from the burden of nonperforming assets, which restrains the credit growth. Aleksei Kudrin previously said that Russia's Finance Ministry was going to cut the forecast of internal borrowings from 1.7 to 1.4 trillion rubles.
The drawbacks in the field of accounting and in the banking supervision also create extra risks. Experts paid attention to the financial regulation system and its protection.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation expects a reduction of liquidity in the banking system of the country in September-October of the current year. In 2012-2014, CB experts forecast a world growth of credit rates. The Central Bank is ready to increase the volume of refinancing of Russian banks. The volume may reach 1.5-2 trillion rubles by 2015.
The IMF also pointed out the reduction of the level of unemployment in Russia and the strengthening of the current external balance. At the same time, the experts paid attention to the ongoing outflow of capital, which is most likely connected with political uncertainty before the presidential election of 2012 and the unfavorable business climate.
The Ministry for Economy has previously increased the volume of the expected outflow of capital by $5 billion - to $40 billion. In addition, the ministry believes that the ruble rate is overvalued by ten percent.
"Unlike the majority of developed countries, everything is fine in Russia in a short-term perspective. The economic growth has resumed, the level of debt remains low, the budget is practically balanced and the inflation rate is going down," Aleksei Mozhin said, according to The Kommersant.
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