While the basis of Professor Igor Pararin’s reasons for the upcoming US collapse, and I dare say that of all of N. America, are correct, his predictions of the new political reality are simplistic at best and widely in correct at worst, not taking into account the actual demographic, historic and political situation on the sites.
More than likely, a US collapse will have direct and balkanizing effects not only on the US but also on the weak Canadian confederacy, tied economically to the hip of the US economic might or there lack of, and to the civil war torn Mexican giant.
As such, from what was originally four states: Canada, USA, Mexico and Cuba, as well as the dozen or so small island statelits of the north Caribbean, will form thirteen new entities, separated politically and economically. We will now review each and everyone of these, starting from the West and moving to the East.
Republic of Alaska
Oil rich Alaska, separated from America and never fully part of the mainland culture, will quickly split off. It will rely primarily on its oil wealth, opening up many new fields that are presently closed to it by the US federal government. More than likely, Canada’s Yukon will also join it in a new state on the edge of human civilization.
Lacking the military power to protect themselves, especially from neighbors like the People’s Democratic Republic of Western North America, the ROA will be forced to seek protection from other powers. The logical and cultra-religious choice will be Russia. Thus the ROA will be firmly in the Russian sphere.
Kingdom of Hawaii
Hawaii never joined the United States willingly, but was forcibly annexed. To that end, the local population has always desired independence. With large Chinese and Japanese populations backing them, more then likely Hawaii will declare independence and reinstate its monarchy. This will cost the US its main Pacific ports, so that for Hawaii to maintain independence, it will be forced to seek protection from either China or Japan. The question becomes, under whose shadow will they fall. There will be an intense power politics between China, Japan, Australia and the PDRWNA.
People’s Democratic Republic of Western North America (PDRWNA)
The nation will encompass a block of territories sharing economic and socialist political as well as cultural ties. This will more than likely include Central and Northern California, most of Nevada, Washington and Oregon states, as well as British Columbia and the NW Territories.
Economically, as well as politically, these areas will continue their march into a benign, progressive pseudo Marxist dictatorship of green politics and police state control.
As one of the most powerful of the successor states of the USA, they will attempt to dominate their weaker neighbors, specifically the New Mormon Zion Kingdom and the Lakota Tribal Confederation. They will also have continuous border issues with the Republica Del Norta, to its south and will have continued problems with the rump USA/Canadian Union.
Republica Del Norte
F orming the northern two thirds of Mexico, united with the US’ southern California, southern Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico, the hard socialist police state will be populated primarily by Mexicans. Blacks and Asians will be expelled or ethnically cleared to its northern neighbors. Whites will either also flee or be absorbed.
The nation will be relatively poor, though quiet, as the government will deal with the gangs, mafia and disturbances with extreme brutality. Oil will be the primary generator of GDP and will be mostly stolen by the ruling elites.
Soviet Zapatista Union
The hard core Indian Marxists, in the southern third of the poverty stricken south of Mexico, will win their twenty years war of independence with Mexico City. Having reclaimed the much more valuable US Southwest, Mexico will cut loose its southern headache. The hard core Marxists state will join a growing coalition of other hard core, dirt poor Latin American Marxists.
New Mormon Zion Kingdom
Taking advantage of the balkanizing North America, the Mormons will form their own theocratic kingdom, a theocracy of sorts, with the absolute rule by their church and its top prophets. All other faiths will be sent scurrying out of the kingdom. The kingdom will be forced to play all its major neighbors off on each other, in order to stay sovereign. That and its geographic remoteness will aid its sovereignty.
Lakota Tribal Confederation
Covering the ancestral lands, this traditional but libertarian loose confederation of Indian clans and whites who share their culture, has already declared its independence, making it official in 2008. True, at present the US ignores them and their claims, when the collapse comes, there will be no ignoring the reality on the ground. Whether the nation will be able to survive in the long run, is doubtful, as it lacks a strong industrial base or a potential for a strong military. If it is not skillful at playing off its neighbors, its stay in the history of nations will be short.
Republic of Texas