Novorossiya - By Whose Plan?

By Jim Jones

The Ukrainian junta has notified the closure of three airports surrounding Donetsk. I believe the reason for this is so that they can fly in US C130's and unload 10,000 to 15,000 mercenaries. [You may remember earlier in the year that there were reports of this number of mercenaries, "training" in Poland?].

Currently, UKI Junta generals have been saying that they are going to have a major offensive. I believe that the situation in Ukraine is such that they need to take the coal mines etc in Donbass in order to survive the winter. They cannot wait for a Spring offensive.  Besides, a Spring offensive is what is generally touted as happening - surprise, the force multiplier.

The question arises then, what will Moscow think about this?  Moscow has repeatedly stated that they will not let the Donbass be taken; they have also said that they will not allow NATO bases in Ukraine. I don't believe that these statements are bluff.  An escalation of this type can only result in the direct involvement of Moscow - what the US has wanted all along.  Weaken the ruble, impose world sanctions and then create a war to destroy the Russian economy. All sort of fits together.

The question now is - will Moscow do the predictable?  Will they continue to "follow" the US script or will they do a "South Stream"?

Possible scenarios for the future of Novorossiya

- Moscow also declares a no-fly zone over the airports and says it will shoot down any flights to them.  US says that would be a provocation to war.  Moscow says, then the choice is yours. EU and others will pressure for a diplomatic solution and a de-escalation of tensions.  India and China go on heightened alert and cause major re-thinking.  If not, Moscow will not back-down on this so we will have a global war.  This is not what the US/NATO want, the EU economies are too fragile at present and still too dependent on Russia for energy and other exports of essential minerals. US is not too comfortable with the oil crisis hitting all the Junk bonds that have been floated. No, they all wanted a nice "contained war" where they could challenge Russia by proxy and bleed the Russian economy. There would be no stomach for a global war.  In this scenario, Moscow would "win" but simply prolong the war in Novorossiya.  Unless, of course, General Winter intervenes and finishes off Ukraine;

- the militia say enough and carry out a pre-emptive strike on Ukrainianformations in their concentration locations. This will be attacked by the "West" as a breach of the Minsk agreement and blamed on Russia. Further sanctions will be imposed by the US and EU on Russia. However, the effects of the sanctions may well be much less than the cost of a war. Also, it would still not attract the "direct" involvement of NATO or the US;

- Russia speeds up the procedure for raising "Private Armies" and transfers serving military to private companies and sends them immediately to the Donbas with similar results to the item above;

- Moscow does nothing and allows the build-up to continue and the attack on Donetsk to proceed in the belief that the Militia can "hold-out". Watching always, over the situation and increasing the resistance in other areas of Ukraine to place a strain on the security forces.

Given that the milita are said to be around 45,000; conventional military doctrine states that forces of around ten to one are required to guarantee military success when attacking a defended enemy; and that is in a conventional war setting - not a guerrilla styled war. Some report that the militia have reduced numbers on account of rotation and some "volunteers" returning home.  If the number has dropped to around 15,000 then the Uki Junta may well consider their chances [especially with 15,000 mercenaries added to their numbers].

Whatever, we are facing a very difficult time - the West is determined to embroil Russia in a war in order to destroy her economy and then to split up the country. 

What is happening in Russia today is simply a war against the control of the world by the Central Banks/IMF/World Bank.  There will only be one winner. We need all pray that it is Russia who saves the world form modern serfdom.

Jim Jones

New Zealand