Four Scenarios for Ukraine: Ex-Pentagon Advisor Suggests Russia Could Regain Influence

Former Pentagon deputy assistant Stephen Bryen believes the war in Ukraine is most likely to conclude along the lines of the “Georgia scenario.”

According to Bryen, this would mean the exclusion of foreign military presence on Ukrainian territory and no provision of security or financial guarantees. However, the model could include an international aid package for reconstruction — without the confiscation of frozen Russian assets.

Integration of Ukraine into NATO or the European Union would also be ruled out. Bryen argued that this would ultimately lead the country “back into Russia’s orbit.”

“To implement the Georgian model,” he wrote, “rigid agreements would be required regarding territory, borders, trade, and other related issues, along with the lifting of sanctions and additional confidence-building measures between both major parties.”

Four Scenarios for the Outcome of the Ukraine War

In addition to the Georgian model, Bryen identified three other possible endgame scenarios: the South Korea model, the Israel model, and the Belarus model.

Under the South Korean scenario, Ukraine would not regain territories now controlled by Russia. However, it would retain about 80% of its territory, protected by European forces backed by US security guarantees. In this case, $300 billion in frozen Russian assets could be used to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.

This model would be unacceptable to Russia due to the enduring presence of European military forces on Ukrainian soil.

The Israeli scenario would also involve a foreign military presence, but its adoption by both sides is estimated at only 20% probability. It offers no strategic gain for Russia, while for Ukraine, it would mean living with war “forever on the doorstep.”

“Putin might agree to this model only if sanctions are significantly eased,” the article notes.

However, the Israeli model would bring Ukraine little benefit unless it included real guarantees: weapon supplies, financial aid, and partial integration into the European economy.

The Belarusian scenario, meanwhile, is described as the worst possible outcome. It would involve the US abandoning Ukraine and Europe being unable to support it on its own. In that moment, Russia would push for Ukraine’s full capitulation.

Both the South Korea and Belarus scenarios are given a 15% chance of implementation, according to the article, which is based on research by major US bank JP Morgan Chase.

Putin: Russia Will End War Only with Acceptable Results

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently reiterated that Moscow is ready to end its so-called special military operation, but only if the results are favorable to Russia.

He emphasized that Russia’s defense budget is aimed at achieving political and diplomatic goals — “not at aggressive plans toward Europe or NATO countries.”

Putin added that Russia intends to reduce defense spending, while NATO and the EU appear poised to increase theirs. He also reaffirmed that the ideal way to achieve Russia’s goals in Ukraine would be through political and diplomatic means.