The southern section of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula shifted nearly two meters southeast following a massive 8.8-magnitude earthquake on July 30, according to local scientists at the Federal Research Center of the Unified Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
While the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky seismic cluster, including the city itself, experienced less displacement, researchers noted that their earlier predictions about fault movement proved accurate. Their model had anticipated the most significant crustal rupture and ground shift on the southern flank of the earthquake’s epicenter—precisely where the most dramatic changes occurred.
Macroseismic effects most severe in the Kurils
The quake’s strongest macroseismic impact was reported in Severo-Kurilsk, while damage in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky remained relatively limited. Still, the region saw four tsunami waves up to six meters high and dozens of aftershocks, which experts say may continue for a month or longer.
“The worst has already happened. I don’t think we’ll see another tsunami in Petropavlovsk for at least another decade,” said Petro Shebalin, seismologist at the Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Volcanic activity intensifies across the peninsula
Immediately after the quake, Kamchatka’s most active volcano, Klyuchevskaya Sopka, erupted. The eruption continues and may intensify in the coming days, with ash plumes possibly reaching 10 kilometers in height. On August 3, Krasheninnikov volcano, dormant for over 500 years, also began erupting, sending ash columns up to six kilometers—potentially increasing to eight.
Meanwhile, Mutnovsky volcano has shown signs of reactivation, prompting scientists to assign it a yellow alert level due to anomalous heat activity. By contrast, seismic activity at Kambalny volcano appears to be decreasing.
Regional authorities have urged residents and tourists to avoid travel or hikes within a 10-kilometer radius of the active craters.
Comparisons to 2011 Tōhoku quake
Scientists drew comparisons between the current ground shift in Kamchatka and the devastating 2011 Tōhoku earthquake in Japan, which triggered a tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster. The co-seismic displacement in Kamchatka is considered comparable in magnitude, though casualties and damage have been minimal so far.
Infrastructure damage reported, but casualties remain low
Despite the quake’s strength, casualties have been limited. Several people sustained injuries, but none serious. A kindergarten wall collapsed, and ceilings fell at Kamchatka Airport, prompting an evacuation. A woman was hit by falling debris but escaped serious harm.
Future quakes unlikely in short term
Shebalin, a leading seismic expert, believes that another quake of this magnitude is unlikely within the next decade. He explained that tectonic plates have now released the pressure built up since 1962, and future aftershocks are expected to remain below a magnitude of 7.5.
